Another great week last week, though I regret not writing up Quinten Dormady, but I did play him in my best GPP Lineup (see image below). My cash lineup did well too making it six out of seven weeks we’ve crushed it.
With that said, this week is a bit tougher. There are some great high-end options, but finding the value to fit in those high-priced options will be tricky. But let’s get to it…
Quarterback
Ben DiNucci (SEA) vs. DC $12,000
If you’ve been reading my columns all season, you will know my strategy at quarterback is “play the QB against the Defenders.” They give up by far more yards through the air, but they are by far the best run defense. They are what we call a funnel defense in the truest sense. DiNucci is expensive, but he will play off.
AJ McCarron (STL) vs. VGS $11,700
The Vipers have the worst overall defense in terms of yards allowed, giving up 337.9 total yards per game through seven weeks. Quarterbacks are completing an astonishing 72-percent of their passes against this defense.
McCarron leads the league in touchdown passes with 17 –five more than the next closest, Ben DiNucci– and boasts the best TD/INT ratio among the QBs that have played in every game this season.
Running Back
Brian Hill (STL) vs. VGS $9,700
You throw on DC, you run on Vegas. The Vipers are dead last in rush defense, giving up 121.4 rushing yards per game. Brian Hill is second in rushing yards (379) and second in total yards (566) on the season. The biggest knock on Hill thus far is that he doesn’t score enough touchdowns, but only the Guardians have given up more total TDs and only the Sea Dragons have given up more rushing TDs than the Vipers – Hill will find pay dirt this week, mark it down.
De’Veon Smith (ARL) @ ORL $8,000
Guardians are giving up a whopping 30.6 points per game, only two other teams give up more than 20, making the Guardians the only team giving up more than 30 per game.
Jacques Patrick (SA) vs. HOU $6,800
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Patrick’s appeal isn’t that he is putting up a ton of stats, but he is relatively cheap with the amount of volume he gets in both the run and pass game. He has 9 catches over his last three games and has typically been in the double-digit carry range as well. The only thing that worries me a little is that the Roughnecks’ run defense is pretty good, ranking second — but you’re going to have to find some value with the expensive QBs being chalk, so you might as well use someone getting a ton of usage.
Embed from Getty ImagesPhillip Lindsay (SEA) vs. DC $7,800
Lindsay is a Sick Call Legend, shout out Tim Strobel who called out Lindsay as his long shot (Sick Call) a few years ago on my podcast, and Lindsay ended up being in the Milly-Maker winning lineup that week.
Times have changed though and Lindsay is now a member of the Sea Dragons and is currently listed as the RB2. Take the XFL Depth charts with a grain of salt, but the fact remains that Lindsay posseses game-breaking speed and has some pass catching ability out of the backfield.
The Defenders run defense is stout, so I’m expecting the Sea Dragons to be forced to pass, meaning we could see more Lindsay than we will Darius Bradwell. Lindsay just joined the team this week, so this pick does come with risk.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Cedric Byrd II (HOU) @ SA $5,800
Bryd now has 24 receptions over his last four games. To put that in perspective, that’s an average of six catches per game, and if he were to have averaged that the entire season, he’d have three fewer catches than league-leading Jahcour Pearson. In fact, Bryd has more catches than his teammate Deontay Burnett despite having nine fewer targets.
Jahcour Pearson (SEA) vs. DC $11,400
Pearson and DiNucci are going to be an expensive stack, but could very well pay off in this dream matchup against the Defenders. The last time Pearson faced the Defenders he had a season-high 12 catches.
Darrius Shepherd (STL) vs. VGS $8,800
Shepherd now has back-to-back games with seven catches, and has three touchdowns in those two games. Vipers give up the second-most passing yards per game and QBs are completing a 72.3-percent of their passes. Shepherd is a cheap pivot off the more popular Battlehawk, Hakeem Butler.
Sal Cannelle (ARL) @ ORL $7,000
This is the week to fade Cody Latimer. I’ve written up Latimer since Week 2 because he was so underpriced, and truthfully he’s still underpriced, but he gets a bad matchup this week against the Renegades who give up the second-fewest passing yards, have the second-most interceptions and have given up the third-fewest passing TDs.
But, back to Cannelle. No team has allowed more passing TDs that have the Guardians, and, yes, Cannelle has yet to score a TD, but I think that changes this week. If you can afford Latimer, play him, but if you need that extra $1,400, don’t be afraid to use Cannelle.
Defense
Guardians vs. ARL $3,600
This is a bit of a risky pick because, let’s face it, the Guardians are a bad defense. However, the Renegades are a worse offense. They only have 8 total TDs on the season, 4 rushing and 4 passing. They are tied with the most interceptions thrown (9) and they average 13.2 points per game, which isn’t entirely accurate because they have two defensive TDs. If you take away those two TDs, the offense averages slightly over 11 points per game. Their highest scoring game was Week 1 when they scored 22. For what it’s worth, the Guardians had a season-high six points against the Renegades in Week 2.
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