Welcome back DFS nation! What a day it was yesterday. If you follow me on twitter you know the devastation I experienced yesterday. I crafted an almost perfect lineup. It had Lackey, Grandal, and even McCutchen. According to my research, all of these guys were going to go off, and that’s exactly what they did. However, an hour before the early games started I started tinkering with my lineup. I ended up fading all of the aforementioned players I had in my lineup for guys who I thought I had a gut feeling about. Fortunately, some of you guys on twitter never got my updated lineup and ended up with some nice cash. Not me however. I was stuck with my “I’m too scared to trust the numbers” lineup. Well let me give you two bits of advice. MLB dfs is not like NBA. With NBA you can pick a guy off the bench who’s starting because of a team injury and follow your gut feeling and most likely he’ll get in the game and contribute. Up until tip off you can scroll through twitter seeing which guys will start or if some late news breaks about that player being out with an injury. Not with MLB. You need to base the majority of your decisions on data. Once you find the guys who stick out statistically, stick with those guys!! Did you hear me? Stick with those guys!! I made the foolish mistake of tinkering with my lineup close to game start. Pick the guys you like and stick with them. If they screw you that day, oh well, we can’t read the future, only select lineups that give us the best edge statistacally.
Ok , I hope all that helped. Today is a full evening slate on a warm Friday evening. So if youre at work today, work hard and I’ll work harder to get you the picks that will help your lineup succeed tonight. Keep your eyes peeled for updates, as I’ll be making changes to this post throughout the day.
Starting Pitchers
Cole Hamels ($9,900) Looking at Cole Hamels a couple of things stand out to me. First, is his matchup. He matches up against a Mets team who is leading their divison but oddly enough are ranked below the league avearage in Hits, BBs, Runs, and RBIs. It’s an odd matchup because the Mets have been winning games but the stats don’t impress like they should for a division leading team. Second, he’s facing Harvey on the mound. So why do I like him? Well if you’ve read any of my earlier post, you know that I like strikeout pitchers. Hamel’s K/9 is 9.24 for the season (not super stellar, but not too shabby) and even though the Mets don’t strikeout that much, they don’t get a ton of hits either. I think he’ll be able to rack up some K’s and not give up too many runs tonight.
Jason Hammel ($7,300) If I play him with Hamels, let’s just say my lineup will be going Ham (get it? ok…not funny) or at least I hope it will. Any way, Hammel is cheap and I love cheap as he should give us some value tonight. Unlike Hamels, Hammel’s (huh?) matchup is a lil bit better on paper. The Brewers are at the bottom of the standings in the majors, and they love to strikeout. Remember we’re here to prey on the weak!
Sonny Gray ($9,800) Sonny Gray! Go look his fantasy points for the last three games on DraftKings! Seriously. Grab your phone right now and check. I’ll wait…………………………………………………………… Great right! He’s been killing it this season, and he hasn’t faced a weak hitting team yet. I expect for him to impress again tonight. I’mactually torn between him and Hammel. I’ll prolly end up making two lineups with both.
Matt Harvey ($11,000) What’s wrong with me? I hate following the crowd so much I almost left Harvey out of this post completely. Let’s put it like this Harvey is the ace to play tonight. He’s going to be highly owned around DraftKings but don’t let that stop you from playing him because I think he makes for a safe cash play. What I don’t like about Harvey really isnt his fault. What I don’t like is that everyone likes him so much. Now listen carefully, this isnt based on stats (which is what I told you to base your player selection by). This is about value. Yeah I could play Harvey for $11, 000 for him but if he only scores a few more points than Gray or Hamels (which I think he will) I will have still not got the value I needed to play other strong picks for my hitters. Like I said, this is my own personal bias. You should play Harvey, but I probably won’t.
More coming soon…
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