I asked my team at GoingFor2 to give me their “Most Overrated RB” for 2021, and they did not disappoint. Don’t worry, I linked their Twitter handle so you could reach out to them and tell them how wrong they are…
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Embed from Getty ImagesJoe Mixon (CIN)
Rob Lorge @RobFFAddict
Joe Mixon is currently ranked as the RB11 in full-PPR leagues on FantasyPros. He’s coming off the board in the middle of the second round. It’s not his talent that makes him over-valued, although I do question if he’s one of the elite runners he tends to get grouped with. It’s not his workload that makes him over-valued because the volume will be there. Well, as long as he stays healthy (he’s only played a full 16-game season once in four seasons). No, the reason he’s over-valued is that Joe Mixon is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
He is the fantasy football equivalent of Theon Greyjoy. One week you’re rooting for him as he chases redemption and the next week you’re wondering why you even gave him the chance to change your mind. And this is the heart of Joe Mixon’s problem. He lacks consistency. If fantasy managers are using a second-round pick on someone, they need to know they can depend on them. A second-round pick should exhibit confidence when you set your line-up, not anxiety.
Last season, the former Sooner had two games under nine points. He scored a whopping 42% of his total points in one game, which was against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. In six games last season, he finished as an RB3 50% of the time. That’s Mr. Hyde folks. 50% of the time he hurt your starting lineup. Six games, however, is a small sample size. If we look at the 2019 season, we find the exact same thing.
Joe Mixon finished as an RB3 in 50% of his games despite finishing as the RB13 overall. How’s that even possible? He scored over a quarter of his total points in just two games. Say hello to Dr. Jekyll, but Mr. Hyde is always there lurking around the corner. Despite those two monster games, he had seven games with under 10.5 points. Five of those weren’t even close either (3.7, 5.7, 5.9, 7.4, and 7.9). That kind of inconsistency is fine from a fifth or sixth-rounder, but a second?
Who wants to ride that roller coaster? Trust me, I get all the love Mixon is getting. Giovani Bernard is gone, which should open up an additional role in the passing game. They signed Riley Reiff, which should help the offensive line. Joe Burrow is back and the offense should be good, maybe even really good. Still, Mixon is about to enter year five and he’s never been all that involved in the passing game. The offensive line is better, but still pretty bad. And none of that answers the big question though, is Joe Mixon reliable?
Because to draft Joe Mixon, fantasy managers will need to bypass Calvin Ridley, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson and Darren Waller. Personally, I feel a whole lot more comfortable with what those players are going to give to my fantasy squad than Dr. Jekyll. Or is it Mr. Hyde? I don’t know and that’s the problem. That’s why Joe Mixon is the most over-valued running back.
Josh Jacobs (LV)
Colt Schroeder @colt_schroeder
Jacobs has received the lion’s share of the workload the last two seasons for the Raiders and finished in the Top 10 in 2020. So what’s the problem, you ask? Everything that has happened around him. The front office continues to make head-scratching decisions. New pieces along the o-line, and a brand new back in the backfield who finished Top 15 in 2020.
With Drake in the mix, the workload has changed dramatically; I see no scenario where Jacobs will receive the same workload as previous seasons, and Jacobs may become much more TD-dependent this season than in years past. Gruden has decided he does not want a single workhorse back, it appears, and Jacobs’s road to another Top 10 finish seems impossible.
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J.K. Dobbins (BAL)
Devin Deal @DevinDeal
Dobbins has all the talent in the world, but he has a lot going against him in the 2021 season. I’m a huge fan of Dobbin’s skillset and it’s frustrating to see a player that could dominate the fantasy landscape if given the opportunity, be held back by the team that drafted him.
If Dobbins would have been drafted to a handful of other teams around the league, he would be a league winner as well as a top-tier pick. However, on the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is going to do things and make electric plays on the ground. Gus Edwards, who just received a contract extension, is going to steal some work and most likely the majority of the goal line opportunities. Enough so that I don’t see a path for Dobbins to capture RB1 status this season.
Dobbins finished as the RB23 in PPR last year, and I think he is headed for a very similar season. Most people love the skillset, as I do, but will overvalue him because of it.
Mike Davis (ATL)
Courtney Burrows @luvtractor3
Look, I saw the the trending massive leg photo of Davis too, but is he really the RB1 that is valuable to fantasy teams and the Falcons? In 2020, when CMC went down, Davis stepped up into the RB1 role. He went for 642 yards and six touchdowns finishing 12th in PPR.
I know what you are saying, he preformed and helped in a bad situation, but I also saw him decline and not be able to withstand the full workload of the season. He only averaged 3.6 yards after the carry which was good but not overwhelmingly impressive. Davis showed moments of glory, but in the long run of the season, he was just average.
The Falcons drafted Rookie Javian Hawkins, who is smaller in stature, but he is quick, explosive, and extends big plays. Hawkins given the right coaching and tools can be a RB1, and might just be in a position to take over if the season becomes too heavy on Davis’s shoulders.
I love a good underdog story and rooted for Davis all last season as he was one of my top wavier wire steals, but he also let me down…alot. So, I think he is being hyped up as one of the new guys to elevate the Falcons, but I won’t be on that bandwagon just yet, but I guess we shall see!
Cam Akers (LAR)
Bo McBrayer @Bo_McBigTime
I am salty. It is entirely irritating to watch a player’s value rise consistently each passing day, despite nothing changing. In fact, Cam Akers’ peak should have occurred immediately after his gritty performances in the Rams’ two playoff games. He was unnaturally hasty to return from a high ankle sprain, but Akers showcased how special he truly is in those three games. Darrell Henderson was on injured reserve already, so the fate of the Rams’ running game fell on the rookie from Florida State.
With Henderson presumably returning as a healthy counterpart in 2021, Akers’ ADP was a lofty (but earned) 14-18 overall in PPR formats. However, as the offseason progressed, the narrative gradually ramped up the Akers’s love, while a simmering anti-Henderson contingency started barking louder. With the Cam Akers ADP now firmly at 10 on Underdog, it has surpassed what I would even consider his ceiling. I have had enough! Cam Akers is the most overrated running back for 2021.
I love the immense talent that Akers showcased in college, despite running behind a historically bad offensive line. He fought through a rib cartilage injury early in the 2020 season, which was already an uphill battle for rookies facing no preseason. Here is where the RB1 train derails for me.
Henderson was much more efficient as a ball carrier last season. Aside from a 171-yard explosion against the Patriots in December, Akers did not surpass 100 yards rushing, nor was he a feature in the passing game, despite his ability as a receiver. Henderson’s performance ensured that his involvement in the Ram offense will be substantial (and to the detriment of Akers), especially now that Malcolm Brown is in Miami.
Even if Akers takes another leap as a professional, his ceiling is capped. Barring a Henderson injury, there will be no bell-cow role. With the running back position not commanding a high volume of targets in the Sean McVay attack, a heavy workload will be required for Akers to return value on his current ADP. Cam Akers is massively overrated as a fantasy commodity, but not as a football player. He is the real deal and I hope he overcomes the odds to prove me wrong.
David Montgomery (CHI)
Brian Craighead @vandygrad92
David Montgomery’s 2020 season was one of two completely different halves. Montgomery averaged 12.15 PPR fantasy points per game during the first nine games of the season while averaging 26.2 fantasy points/game over the last six games. He accumulated 59 percent of his season point total during that six-game stretch.
The question that must be answered is which Montgomery will we see in 2021? Fantasy owners must remember that Tarik Cohen(torn ACL in 2020 in week three’s game) is expected to be fully recovered for the beginning of the season and Damien Williams(formerly of the Chiefs) was signed to a one year deal in free agency.
In the six-game stretch to end the season, Montgomery played at least 74 percent of the snaps in five of those games(four of which were 83 percent or more). Compared to the end of season usage, Montgomery’s highest snap rate in 19 career games played with Cohen has only been 73 percent. In those nineteen games played with Cohen, Montgomery has averaged 11.13 fantasy points/game.
If one assumes a modest increase(compared to career average with Cohen playing) to 12.2 fantasy points/game, Montgomery would have scored 195.2 fantasy points in 2020. This would have made him the RB14/overall 43. I would be reluctant to draft Montgomery before the late fourth round, although his current ADP suggests otherwise.
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