Most of the intrigue of Week 9 came from rookie (or otherwise inexperienced) QB performances and how they impacted the short- and long-term outlooks for their teams. And we had some good, bad, and downright ugly showings. Let’s start with the ugly.
The Ugly: Clayton Tune
To set the context, the graph below has passing EPA per play on the x-axis and rushing EPA per play on the y-axis. And it’s only showing the Week 9 games for effect. The Cardinals are *way* to the left. Their passing EPA per play was about twice as bad as any other team, in a week where Tommy DeVito was called in to play for the Giants. What I don’t understand is why Clayton Tune was allowed to play long enough to *earn* -34 EPA on 34 plays?
Regardless, Kyler Murray will be back to start in Week 9 barring some kind of setback. We can safely say the only direction is up for this Cardinals offense. And with that, I would hold onto Trey McBride if you can. He only managed 3 receptions for 22 yards in Week 9, but you have to consider the context of the Clayton Tune offense. His 5 targets were good enough for a 20% target share, despite his route rate plummeting as he was tasked with additional blocking assignments to keep Tune upright. Better days are ahead because they simply have to be.
The Ugly: Bryce Young
This was Young’s least efficient outing on the season, earning -0.44 EPA per play and a 6.3% completion percentage below expectation. The interception model had a great week (week 10 picks included at the end), correctly predicting whether a QB would throw at least one pick two-thirds of the time. However, Bryce Young had the second-lowest interception odds of the week and managed to throw three picks, including two that were returned for touchdowns. Ouch. Even removing the impact of turnovers and sacks, his EPA still wasn’t high enough.
The graph below shows completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on the x-axis and average air yards per attempt on the y-axis. Bryce Young is all the way at the bottom of the graph. His CPOE is just short of average, but his air yards per attempt is second-lowest in the league, ahead of only Tyson Bagent. And given the state of his receivers, there isn’t any upside in this passing attack. In total, Bryce is now 31st in EPA per play among QBs with a reasonable sample size, landing ahead of only Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson. He may very well turn into a good NFL QB, but I’d doubt it happens this season in this environment.
The Mixed: Aidan O’Connell
Depending on how you viewed Aidan O’Connell before the Giants game probably influences how you see him after Week 9. And I think that’s largely fair. On the positive side, the Raiders had one of the best passing EPA marks for the week on the way to a 30-6 victory over the faltering Giants. And O’Connell did well to avoid negative plays, ending the day with zero interceptions and sacks.
On the negative side, almost all of his passing yards came from yards after the catch (YAC). On the season, O’Connell has the 5th-highest component of EPA derived from YAC. In the graph above, he’s located in the bottom-left along with Bryce Young. He has the 3rd-lowest CPOE on the season to go along with a very low average air yards per attempt. So, he’s not throwing the ball very deep and he’s not doing a fantastic job completing his relatively short throws. In avoiding negative plays, he’s looked a lot better than Jimmy G. But otherwise, it’s a tough sell.
The Good: Josh Dobbs
The Vikings started a rookie QB in Week 9 as well, giving Jaren Hall his first NFL start. Unfortunately, Hall suffered a concussion on the second drive of the game. That brought the newly-acquired Josh Dobbs onto the field, who had been with the team for just a few days. And what does he do but lead the team to a massive 31-28 win over the newly-mustacheless Arthur Smith’s Falcons.
Dobbs has been a particularly effective scrambler on the season. He picked up some key 3rd and 4th down conversions with a lot of yards to go against the Falcons. On the season, he has the 7th-highest component of EPA derived from rushing. He’s been pretty average on the year in terms of CPOE and air yards, but you could argue even without Justin Jefferson that his skill players are better in Minnesota than they were in Arizona. Kirk Cousins was absolutely balling, so this is not a 1-for-1 replacement. But it could certainly be worse as we saw above.
The Absolutely Fantastic: CJ Stroud
Stroud threw for 470 yards and 5 touchdowns in Week 9. You can trot out any other stats you want but they all say the same thing; Stroud was incredible against the Buccaneers. I hope you took my advice last week and grabbed Tank Dell. On the season, the Texans are now top-8 in passing EPA per play. However, their running game continues to go nowhere. In Week 9, the Texans were bottom-3 in rushing efficiency. They haven’t been much better for the season as a whole.
The graph below shows pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the x-axis and weekly fluctuations in PROE on the y-axis. The Texans are in the bottom-left quadrant for the season. That means they’ve been more run heavy on the year and pretty consistent in that approach. Week 9 might be the start of something new for the Texans, though. They hit their highest PROE on the season at 4.5%. That was good enough for 7th-highest on the week, compared to bottom-8 on the season. If I’m the Texans, I’m letting Stroud cook. And it seems like the Texans are starting to say “yes, chef”.
The Old: Geno Smith
Geno is neither a rookie or inexperienced QB, but I had to talk about his Week 9 performance. It was a brutal one. His -0.41 EPA per play was tied for his worst performance on the season. The graph below shows passing EPA on the x-axis and rushing EPA on the y-axis for the entire 2023 season. The Seahawks are now bunched together with a lot of other teams in the middle of the graph. They’re basically average when passing and a bit better than average when rushing. Week 9 really hurt their position as they finished 4th-worst in passing EPA and dead-last in rushing EPA on the week. This Ravens defense is for real.
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One positive from Week 9 was the increased usage of JSN. He hit a new career high with 6 receptions and tied previous bests in targets and receiving yards. You have to take the performance with a grain of salt because almost all of this work came with the game out of reach. But it’s at least something trending in the right direction for the Seahawks, who have an absolutely fantastic fantasy football playoff schedule.
Taysom Hill: The Next Donald Parham?
All the way back in Week 2, I mentioned that Donald Parham in Los Angeles had some interesting usage. At the time, when he earned a target, it was with the shortest distance to go for a touchdown of any player in the league. And with any reasonable sample size, he’s still the leader in that stat today. But right behind him is Taysom Hill. His average involvement (either rushing or receiving) comes from the opponent’s 35-yard line.
So, it’s pretty clear how the Saints want to use Hill, which is largely as a rushing threat in the redzone. In Week 9, he earned 5 targets and 11 rushing attempts. This unfortunately caps the ceiling of most other New Orleans skill players, with Hill soaking up high value touches near the endzone. But it does mean that on platforms where Hill is TE-eligible, he’s a completely-viable TE moving forward. (As a short aside, Jake Ferguson is right behind both Parham and Hill. And according to Next Gen Stats, Dak Prescott has averaged 4 fewer yards per attempt when Ferguson has been off the field this season.)
Dolphins RBs: Achane’s Return
The Dolphins are on bye in Week 10 but should get De’Von Achane back in Week 11 against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-5 in defensive efficiency on the ground. Unfortunately for Raheem Mostert, that will certainly cut his number of opportunities. What’s interesting, though, is that trend has already started happening prior to the bye. In Week 9, Mostert had his lowest snap share since Week 4. With one of Jeff Wilson or Salvon Ahmed possibly still involved even with Achane back, Mostert will need to continue his elite efficiency in order to benefit fantasy managers in the playoffs. I’d move off of him if you can.
Ravens RBs: Ugly Committee?
Purely looking at the snap counts, it looks as if Justice Hill dominated the RB snaps for the Ravens in Week 9. However, a lot of that work came in garbage time when the Ravens already had a massive lead against the Seahawks. You could make an argument that this was truly a 3-man committee in non-garbage time play. That is pretty gross for fantasy football.
Gus Edwards had a big day scoring two touchdowns, but that was only on five rushing attempts. Keaton Mitchell had a career-best performance, earning 138 yards rushing and a touchdown. But similarly, it was only on 9 carries and just 14 snaps. Ideally one of these players separates from the pack, but that honestly doesn’t seem likely at least in the short-term. Keaton Mitchell is at least worth a flyer given his performance; he managed to lead the league in avoided tackles in Week 9 in those 14 snaps.
Browns RBs: Jerome Ford Leads the Way
Jerome Ford made a strong case that he is the Browns RB you want as he dominated both the snaps and two-minute drill work in Week 9. Unfortunately, he wasn’t particularly efficient with his carries. And Kareem Hunt still will mix in, particularly near the endzone. Hunt ultimately got the goal-line TD against the Cardinals. But out-targeting Hunt 7 to 1 on the week, Ford is the best bet moving forward. (Also, as a short aside, Cedric Tillman’s snaps are rising with Donovan Peoples-Jones traded to Detroit. This is more a watchlist add for deeper leagues, but Tillman did play 54 of the Browns’ 73 snaps in Week 9. He only earned one target, but he’s getting on the field. More production may come.)
Bonus: Interception Model
As I mentioned above, it was another strong week for the interception model. Excluding the disastrous Bryce Young call, it was correct on every player mentioned in last week’s article; that includes Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Will Levis. In Week 10, the model has strong conviction on Geno Smith not throwing a pick this week (30% odds). Lamar Jackson also has lower odds to throw a pick in Week 10 (39%). The highest odds to throw a pick go to Derek Carr (58%) and CJ Stroud (56%).
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