It felt like Christmas morning when ESPN Analytics’ Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTM) got updated for 2023. Let me give a brief intro for those not familiar with their stats. They look at every route a player runs and break down a receiver’s play into three parts: getting open, making the catch, and getting yards after the catch (YAC). The biggest benefit to these RTMs is they isolate a player’s performance from their offense. They let us focus purely on the talent of the receiver. And they were one of the reasons I was so high on Brandon Aiyuk coming into the season.
Receiver Tracking Metrics: 2023 Update
How I spotted Aiyuk was by using a clustering technique. I created clusters out of the RTM scores and found one particular cluster where you want your WR to land. The list of 2022 receiver seasons in this cluster matched who you would name as the best receivers in football. Think AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. The most interesting name that popped up was Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk had an open score that matched Justin Jefferson, a catch score that matched AJ Brown, and an above average YAC score. And in 2023, he’s improved even further, sporting the 2nd highest overall score and the highest open score through Week 7.
With the addition of the 2023 data, the clusters have shifted a bit. There are now two clusters you’d ideally want your receiver to land in. They are represented in the graph below by Stefon Diggs and George Pickens. The receivers in the Diggs tier skew toward a higher open score, while the receivers in the Pickens tier win via YAC. In addition to Pickens, some players that I’ll dig into further today that land in these two clusters include Kendrick Bourne, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell.
Diontae and Pickens: Battle of the Clusters
As I mentioned above, George Pickens is the prototypical member of the receiving cluster with a great overall score and a particularly strong YAC metric. But that is a substantial change from his rookie season. In 2022, Pickens had below-average scores in both getting open and YAC. The improvements in those metrics have corresponded with a big boost in his yards per route run. The issue for Pickens is he still needs to compete for targets with Diontae Johnson.
As of Week 7, Diontae didn’t have enough targets to qualify for the RTMs because he missed a lot of time with injury. But from 2019-2022, Diontae’s worst single season open score was in the 87th percentile. Even with the progress Pickens has shown, Diontae should continue to dominate targets in the Steelers offense. We saw that in a small sample in Week 8, where Diontae earned 14 targets to Pickens’ 5. Pickens has some incredibly flashy catches, but it’s tough to compete with a player who gets open at a truly elite level.
Demario Douglas Supremacy?
I mentioned Kendrick Bourne above because he’s another potentially surprising player who flashed in past RTMs. Bourne finished the 2021 season ranked third in their overall receiver rating among WRs. I called him out as a player to grab before Week 2. And he was off to a small breakout season, landing as WR24 overall in PPR points through Week 8. Unfortunately, Bourne suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 and is now out for the rest of the season. Brutal.
The WR that gets the biggest playing time and ceiling boosts from the news is Demario Douglas. In Week 8, he led the team in snaps and routes and easily paced his fellow receivers with seven targets. He has yet to qualify for the RTMs but has flashed agility and now has the opportunity to seize some volume in the Patriot’s offense. He’s absolutely worth an add.
Nico Collins and Tank Dell: Middle of the Field Monsters
Passes over the middle of the field are typically more efficient than passes to the boundaries. And that’s been the case for 2023. The graph below shows passing EPA per dropback. The x-axis shows that value for passes to the middle of the field, while the y-axis shows EPA/dropback on passes to the outside. The graph is purposefully ugly because I wanted the scales to be identical. It lets you easily spot a few elite passers over the middle and that efficiency skews toward passes in the middle compared to passes to the outside.
So, the QBs that have stood out so far in 2023 in efficient middle-of-the-field passing are Tua and then two more surprising names in C.J. Stroud and Ryan Tannehill. Let’s take a look at what receivers are helping deliver these results. The graph below shows EPA per target for receivers on Houston, Miami, and Tennessee that have earned at least seven targets in both the middle and outside areas of the field. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and DeAndre Hopkins probably don’t surprise you. Nico Collins and Tank Dell might.
They’ve both been excellent this year. They are back-to-back in the RTMs, earning the 4th and 5th highest overall scores in the entire league. Tank Dell dominates by getting open, and so he lands in the Stefon Diggs tier, while Nico Collins excels in YAC, landing in the George Pickens tier. I’m incredibly high on Tank Dell in dynasty. He gets open at a truly elite level and has a QB that gets him the ball over the middle of the field with elite efficiency. What more do you want?
Derek Carr: Bounceback
Moving away from WRs to QBs, Derek Carr had his best game of the season in Week 8. He hit new highs for the season in EPA per play, completion percentage over expectation, and yards per attempt. We saw a bit of what I mentioned last week with his play style, though. The graph below shows average time to throw on the x-axis and average intended air yards on the y-axis. Derek Carr has a relatively low time to throw and high aDoT. That’s ideally where you’d like to be. But that doesn’t seem to square with how often he checks the ball down to Alvin Kamara. What helps explain it are the very successful deep shots he had to Rashid Shaheed in Week 8, resulting in 153 yards and a touchdown. The communication issues with Chris Olave seemingly continued, with Olave letting a TD bounce off his helmet. Even still, this was a very positive game for Derek Carr and the Saints offense.
Baker Mayfield: Money Downs
I’ve discussed in past weeks that Baker Mayfield has been solid in 2023. The Buccaneers passing offense is in the top third of the league in efficiency. But he’s mostly been doing it on his own. The Bucs are bottom two in rushing EPA per play, with Rachaad White landing in the bottom three in rushing yards over expected per carry.
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What’s also interesting is the downs where Baker is exceling. If we only look at 1st and 2nd downs, the Bucs are in the bottom third in passing efficiency. But when Baker gets to pass on 3rd and 4th downs, he’s among the top 4 QBs in the league, behind only Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott, in passing EPA per dropback. I have some concerns that, given the relatively small sample sizes of 3rd and 4th down attempts, Baker could reasonably regress. But credit to him for his performance thus far.
Eagles and Chargers: Rushing Woes
Speaking of QBs doing it on their own, both Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert carried their teams to victories in Week 8 despite a complete lack of rushing efficiency. According to Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points, the Eagles were nearly perfect in dropback efficiency but under the 1st percentile in designed run efficiency. The Chargers were similarly elite in passing EPA but 2nd percentile in efficiency from designed runs. It’s a fall from grace for both teams’ rushing attacks.
The Eagles earned 2.7 yards per attempt on 22 carries and had two extremely costly fumbles that easily cost them 14 points on the scoreboard. The Chargers had similar success, with Ekeler gaining only 29 yards on 15 carries, while dominating through the air. There have been too many moments this year where it seems that if Justin Herbert doesn’t play a perfect game, the Chargers have no chance to win. Let’s get the man some help!
Will Levis and Zach Wilson: Context Needed
Continuing with QBs, Will Levis had a great first start. He finished the game with 238 passing yards and four touchdowns, doubling Tannehill’s touchdown number for the season in a single game. And the advanced stats largely look favorable as well. He had a completion percentage over expectation of 7.5% and the highest intended air yards per attempt on the week. Just don’t get too far over your skis here. It was really just four pass attempts driving the favorability. I know, I know, if you take away any player’s best plays, they’ll look worse. But the sample size here is so small and the success rate for the Titans was not strong even including the four touchdown passes. Let’s get a larger sample size before making definitive conclusions.
I feel safe in making some definitive conclusions on Zach Wilson, though. There has been a lot of talk that he’s looked a lot better this year. This has to be heavily influenced by the Jets’ 4-3 record and not Wilson’s actual performance. The Jets are dead last in the league in passing EPA per play. Wilson is in the bottom 10 in completion percentage above expectation. What the Jets do have is a dominant defense and perhaps the best RB in the league in Breece Hall. According to Next Gen Stats, the Jets defense had a 95.8% defensive success rate against the Giants on pass plays; the highest success rate in a game since Next Gen Stats started tracking the stat in 2016. I still don’t think the Jets’ winning record is sustainable without an *actual* improvement from Zach Wilson.
Panthers: They Woke Up!
I wrote a few weeks back that Chuba Hubbard was not worth holding onto in redraft leagues because the Panthers were unlikely to wake up one day and start him over Miles Sanders. This is in spite of Hubbard clearly outplaying Sanders to start the season. Well, the Panthers woke up! All it took was a new offensive play caller. In Week 8, Hubbard dominated the snaps 45 to 12 and also dominated the touches 17 to 2.
The graph below shows rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry on the x-axis and Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. Chuba Hubbard has been one of the best backs in the league this year according to these metrics. He’s top-14 in RYOE per attempt and top-4 in success rate. Miles Sanders is simultaneously in the bottom-6 in RYOE per attempt and dead last in success rate. We finally got a rational coaching decision, folks!
Trey McBride: TE Takeover
With Zach Ertz landing on IR after Week 7, Trey McBride came through with a career game. He earned 14 targets, 10 receptions, 95 yards, and a touchdown in the Week 8 loss. And this comes with the additional context that the Ravens were previously very stingy against opposing TEs, giving up an average of 6.9 fantasy points per game. That was good enough for 2nd lowest in the league. He now gets the pleasure of playing the only more difficult TE matchup on the season, the Browns, in Week 9. We also don’t know who the starting QB is yet, other than it won’t be Josh Dobbs who was just dealt to the Vikings. I think McBride is still worth an add if he’s available in your league. How many TEs can even get 14 targets in a game given the current landscape?
Bonus: Interception Model
It was a new “best week yet” for the interception model in Week 8. Among the QBs where the model had the most conviction, it was correct 75% of the time. That includes nailing all four of the players I mentioned in last week’s article. In Week 9, the model has Bryce Young and Lamar Jackson as having low odds for a pick. The highest odds to throw a pick go to Josh Allen and Will Levis.
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