We all know that fantasy football is a weekly game. Even with this knowledge, there are two traps that I still find myself falling into:
- Trying to win a roster beauty contest, particularly in the off-season but also during the season.
- Relying too much on seasonal trends, rather than focusing on the predictability of the weekly matchup.
It’s the second trap that I’ll be focusing on today. As I’ve been getting more interested in Underdog pick’ems, particularly for interceptions where I had my best week of the season, I’ve found that pass rate over expectation (PROE) is one of the most predictive variables. But PROE is a single number for the season. You can think of some teams like the Eagles and Lions that are willing to massively change their game plan based on their opponent. They can skew pass heavy or run heavy at a rate far beyond what the situation would expect. So, an average number for the season isn’t a good representation for how they’ll play in this week’s particular matchup. Knowing this can help you in your fantasy league, DFS contest, or Underdog pick’em.
Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) Fluctuations
That’s where being able to add additional context can give you an edge. The graph below shows PROE on the x-axis and the standard deviation of PROE on the y-axis. Think of the y-axis as how much a team’s pass rate fluctuates on a week-to-week basis. Since the situation like the score and time remaining on the clock is already baked into the expectation, weekly changes in PROE can be thought of as an active choice by the coaching staff. They’re looking at their available players and the defense’s strengths/weaknesses and choosing an approach.
As expected, both the Eagles and Lions find themselves in the top-middle of the graph. Both teams have one game this season where they’ve been extremely pass heavy and extremely run heavy (a pass rate 10% above or below expectation). For example, in Week 6, the Eagles played the Jets. The Jets have one of the best run defenses in the league, ranking in the top-eight in defensive rush EPA. The Eagles opted to pass 12.8% above expectation in the game. Detroit similarly passed far above expectation vs the Buccaneers’ stout run defense in Week 6, though this was partially due to David Montgomery’s injury.
So, in general, you can feel more confident using seasonal statistics for the teams at the bottom of the graph. The Broncos will likely be slightly run-heavy regardless of their opponent. But for teams closer to the top of the graph, you’ll need to think about the strengths of their opposing defense. That will help you get an edge each week if you can correctly predict the offense’s approach and lean into the passing game of a team that is willing to sharply change their approach and attack a weak pass defense, for example.
Chiefs: Somehow, They Should Pass Even More
As you saw in the graph above, the Chiefs already have the highest PROE in the league. They haven’t had a game this season where they’ve had a pass rate below expectation. And yet, I think you can make an argument that they should be passing even more. The graph below shows passing EPA on the x-axis and rushing EPA on the y-axis. The Chiefs are the only team with an elite pass EPA rate (above 0.20 per dropback) but a below-average rush EPA mark.
In Week 7, the Chiefs failed to gain more than seven yards on any designed run. They joined the Commanders as the only teams not to reach double-digit yards on any designed run. They gained three or fewer yards 70% of the time for a league-worst 2.3 yards per carry. On the season, Isiah Pacheco has been perfectly average according to Next Gen Stats. He’s gaining exactly the number of yards expected of him. Pacheco is fine for fantasy given he’s taken over that backfield fully, but if I’m the Chiefs, I’m relying even more on Mahomes, rather than an average-at-best run game.
Vikings: Will They Ever Score a Rushing TD?
Speaking of relying on the pass, the Minnesota Vikings *still* haven’t scored a rushing TD this year. The Vikings have the fourth-highest PROE in the league and relatively small week-to-week fluctuations. Essentially, they’re going to pass a lot regardless of their opponent. That’s exactly what they did against the 49ers this week, passing well above expectation against one of the league’s best passing defenses.
Obviously, with zero rushing touchdowns, the Vikings have a rushing TD share of 0% in 2023. The lowest rate I found in the last decade was the Seahawks in 2017. They finished the season with a 9.3% rushing TD share. You have to assume there will be some regression to the mean here. And the biggest beneficiary of this regression might be Cam Akers. It felt like the Vikings were transitioning a bit from Mattison to Akers against the 49ers.
I’m certainly not a big Mattison fan, who has -0.25 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry on the season according to Next Gen Stats. But Akers has been even worse on the year. A slight positive for Akers is that he was at least average last year. I don’t feel great about it, but Akers is at least worth holding onto if we’re starting to see his touches rise in Minnesota, particularly with some more (read: any) rushing touchdowns on the way.
Cardinals: Hope on the Way?
Continuing with RB role changes, Emari Demercado unexpectedly got the workhorse treatment in Week 7. He dominated running back carries with James Conner still sidelined, earning 13 of 14 attempts from RBs along with four receptions. Similarly, Marquise Brown’s advanced stats continue to look great despite lackluster production in recent weeks.
At this point, Hollywood Brown and Demercado are the only Cardinals I’m interested in rostering in most redraft leagues. I’d be willing to look at Trey McBride in TE premium formats given that Zach Ertz was just placed on injured reserve. But I would be cautious about getting too far out over your skis with any Cardinals player. The hope is that Kyler Murray returns and looks like the pre-injury version of himself passing. If you’re a contender, and you can acquire these guys at a cheap cost, I at least understand the bet.
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Alvin Kamara: Record-Breaking Pace
Now, Alvin Kamara is a player I want on all of my rosters. Kamara is tied for the league-lead in RB targets despite missing 3 games at the start of the season. He’s averaging just shy of 10 targets per game since coming back from suspension. That puts him on pace to break Christian McCaffrey’s 8.9 targets per game mark that he earned in 2019, which has been the best rate for any RB since at least 2013.
The Saints are one of the more interesting (read: confusing) offenses in the league. Alvin Kamara is getting absolutely peppered with short passes. Simultaneously, Derek Carr has one of the highest average air yards per pass attempt marks in the league. It’s almost like there isn’t a middle option for the team. It’s either Carr immediately dunking the ball off to Kamara or holding the ball for a deep shot. Regardless, this volume is absolutely insane for Kamara even if the efficiency isn’t amazing.
Brandon Staley: Fake Sharp
Speaking of things that confuse me, Brandon Staley seems completely broken. In Week 7, Staley and the Chargers passed on all four chances where they would’ve gained 1%+ in win probability by going for it on fourth down. I know, I know, the fourth down conversation is pretty exhausting. But the Chargers were playing one of the best offenses in the league. These are risks you have to take to beat the Chiefs on the road, even if those chances come on your own side of the field. I still view Justin Herbert as the third-best QB in the league behind Mahomes and Allen. So, don’t mind me while I keep blaming everyone else for the foreseeable future.
QB Time to Throw and Air Yards: Tua is Unreal
Speaking of Justin Herbert, you’ll find him in the top-middle of the graph below, alongside Derek Carr that I mentioned earlier. The x-axis is the average amount of time a QB holds onto the ball before a pass attempt. The y-axis is the average distance a QB throws the ball on each attempt regardless of whether it was completed or not.
Like all stats, this isn’t purely on the QB. The quality of the offensive line, skill position players, and offensive scheme are all important. And those factors come into play uniquely for Tua. We watched the Dolphins’ offensive line struggle a lot versus the Eagles’ stout defensive line in Week 7. We also know that the Dolphins have some of the fastest people on the planet at WR and brilliant offensive play calling.
Even with all of those qualifiers, it’s still impressive what Tua has been able to do this season. You shouldn’t be able to have the fastest time to throw in the league *and* an above-average air yards per attempt. I’m sure you’re not, but don’t panic after a relatively poor Week 7. In fact, go get Jaylen Waddle before his inevitable nuclear game.
That’s Alpha J Brown to You!
Continuing with the Eagles/Dolphins game, this is an AJ Brown appreciation section. He’s now the third player in NFL history to earn 125+ receiving yards in five consecutive games. He’s had fewer than eight targets in one game this season. He leads the league in team air yards share. He leads the league in ESPN Analytics’ receiver score that uses Next Gen Stats tracking data. No one is selling AJ Brown; trust me, I’ve tried getting him. This is just a reminder to enjoy how great he is.
Josh Downs: Some Actionable Advice
Back to some information you can actually use. Josh Downs had a great Week 7, going for five receptions, 125 yards, and a touchdown against Cleveland. Downs’ target share has been completely viable with Gardner Minshew at the helm. It makes sense that Downs would perform better without Anthony Richardson. Despite how good Richardson looked, he does take pass attempts out of the offense through scrambles and his propensity to throw it deep doesn’t align with where Downs attacks the field.
Unfortunately, similar to Jordan Addison before the Justin Jefferson injury, Josh Downs does not play in three WR sets. He’s played exactly one of 94 offensive snaps when the Colts have had two or fewer WRs on the field. And I know Downs has size limitations, but I’d argue strongly that the Colts should change their mind on his usage.
The graph below shows average separation in yards on the x-axis and average yards after the catch (YAC) above expectation on the y-axis. You’ll find Josh Downs in the middle-right of the graph. He’s earning a lot of separation and just slightly more YAC than expected. Alec Pierce doesn’t have enough targets to qualify for the graph, but if he did, he’d be in the bottom-left around Robert Woods. C’mon Colts, let’s get Downs in there for every snap.
Thursday Night Focus: James Cook and Rachaad White
The Bills and Buccaneers square off on Thursday night. In terms of advanced stat efficiency, James Cook and Rachaad White have been in different leagues so far this season. When Damien Harris went down with injury, my expectation was that James Cook and Latavius Murray would largely be in a timeshare. That wasn’t the case in Week 7 at least. James Cook dominated the RB touches, out-carrying Latavius Murray 13 to 4. And that makes complete sense, as James Cook has been great this year.
The graph below shows rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry on the x-axis and Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. James Cook is in the top-right of the graph, right where you want to be. As we saw earlier with the EPA graph, the Bills are one of three teams with elite passing efficiency and above-average rushing efficiency on the season (joining the Dolphins and 49ers). James Cook has been a big part of that. He gets a big test this week with an elite Buccaneers run defense.
Meanwhile, you’ll find Rachaad White in the bottom-left of the graph. And this corresponds with the Buccaneers having bottom-three rushing EPA per attempt for the season. Both the Bills and Buccaneers’ offenses lean pass-heavy and are consistent. It should be a fairly predictable game from a pass rate perspective.
Bonus: Interception Model
Week 7 was the best week for the interception model since I’ve started making the results public. The model was again right about 50% of the time, but for the players where it had the most conviction, it was right two-thirds of the time, which is easily profitable. It nailed the Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield, and Kirk Cousins over 0.5 picks lines and the under 0.5 pick line for Lamar Jackson. I’ll be looking into adding PROE variance like I discussed earlier, which I think should help even more. This week, the model is leaning more toward the unders, with Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts all having low odds for a pick. The highest odds to throw a pick goes to Josh Dobbs.
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