The fantasy football season is a marathon, not a sprint. Today I’ll focus on players that embody this wisdom and their surrounding offensive environments. Players that are getting their cardio in on the football field with little production accompanying it. Let’s start with a team sporting two members of the cardio club.
Bengals: Not So Fast, Part 1
With two consecutive wins, the perception around the Bengals seems to be that they’re fully back. As Lee Corso would say “not so fast, my friend”. On the season as a whole, the Bengals are nearly identical to the Panthers in offensive efficiency. The graph below shows passing yards per completion by season for Joe Burrow. The 2023 season has shown a massive drop vs any other year in Burrow’s career, due partially to a similar drop in air yards per pass attempt. And it hasn’t improved in the last two weeks despite the wins. The approximate 8.4 yards per completion mark in weeks 5 and 6 is identical to the season as a whole.
The Bengals have dinked-and-dunked their way down the field, relying on a large number of offensive snaps, rather than explosive plays, to put up a season-high 34 points in Week 5. Both Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are members of the cardio club, earning less than 1 yard per route run on the season. Tee Higgins truly shouldn’t be on this list, with his 53% snap rate indicating he’s not fully healthy yet. Unfortunately, the schedule is brutal after their bye, starting with the 49ers and the Bills in back-to-back weeks.
Jaguars: Not So Fast, Part 2
Similar to the Bengals in Week 5, the Jaguars’ Week 6 performance is a bit misleading. Their season-high in points was aided by both great field position and a large number of possessions. For example, their average starting field position in Week 6 was 10 yards better than any other week this season and 15 yards better than average. On the season, the Jaguars’ efficiency is much closer to the Broncos than most would expect. Calvin Ridley has also been an underdiscussed topic in recent weeks.
Following his big return in Week 1, Calvin Ridley has had 4 or fewer receptions in all but one game. The graph below shows average receiver separation on the x-axis and yards after the catch (YAC) above expectation on the y-axis. The Next Gen Stats data certainly has some noise in it but I think there is signal as well after six weeks of data.
Calvin Ridley is unfortunately in the bottom-left of the graph, falling below average in separation and under expectation in YAC. Similarly, the other qualifying Jaguars receivers (Christian Kirk and Evan Engram) are also below their YAC expectation, while Zay Jones has been a member of the cardio club. And now with Trevor Lawrence picking up a knee injury, it might be a much tougher Week 7 for the Jags.
Jahan Dotson: Surprise Drop
No member of the cardio club is more surprising than Jahan Dotson. There were a lot of signs pointing to a big year for Dotson. He had an exciting rookie season in 2022, flashing talent with 7 touchdowns and earning an above-average mark in ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metric. The run-out has also been favorable for Dotson. As I mentioned last week, with the addition of Bieniemy as play-caller, the Commanders are first in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season, just ahead of the Chiefs.
So, it’s been a surprise that Dotson is droppable from your re-draft fantasy league at this point. He hasn’t earned enough targets to qualify for the graph above, but if he did, he’d be in the bottom-left corner. Curtis Samuel similarly doesn’t qualify for the graph, but if we lower the cutoff to 31 targets, he would have the third-highest average separation mark in the league. Curtis Samuel has simply outplayed Dotson on the season, and the Commanders have a brutal schedule in the fantasy playoffs. It’s unfortunately time to move on from Dotson.
Rashee Rice: It’s Your Time
Speaking of the Chiefs, both Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore are card-carrying members of the cardio club. Back in the Week 2 edition, I wrote that if I was forced to pick a WR to target going forward for the Chiefs, I’d pick Rashee Rice, with the biggest thing standing in his way being the small number of routes run. I never root for injuries, but the Justin Watson injury might provide Rice with an opportunity. He’s already up to 50% of the routes and we know at this point that Toney is mostly a gadget receiver. Simply watching the Chiefs play, and looking at their formation choices, it’s obvious they could really use a WR to step up. The best bet on the Chiefs is still Rice.
Jameson Williams: Better in Real Life than Fantasy
If you’ve been holding Jameson Williams in dynasty, Week 6 was extremely fun. His 45-yard TD reception was the biggest play of the game in terms of EPA (+5.5) and increase in win probability (+17.8%, up from 67.6% to 85.5%). To be the downer in the room, he did only run 9 routes. We’ll obviously need that number to be *a lot* higher for any sustainable success. It feels like, at least in the short-term but potentially for a while, Jameson Williams will be a more useful asset for the Lions than fantasy managers. The threat of Williams on the outside should open up things even more for the Sun God and LaPorta to eat in the short- and intermediate-areas of the field. But if he can consistently earn separation like this, there will be other big days for Jameson.
Efficiency and Personnel Diversity
The graph below shows passing EPA on the x-axis and the share of passing attempts from 3 WR sets on the y-axis. With the exception of a few outliers like the Falcons, there is a clear trend that the most efficient passing offenses are using 3 WR sets less frequently than their peers. The use of heavier packages should set them up to face more Cover 3 rather than two-high looks, helping generate more explosive passing plays. Back in the off-season, Tej Seth of SumerSports wrote a very interesting article on the importance of offensive personnel diversity. One of the conclusions was that the use of more diverse personnel packages makes it more difficult for opposing defenses to prepare.
Looking at the specific teams, I’d also argue that these teams are highlighting the strengths (or hiding the weaknesses) of their specific players. For example, the 49ers are able to pass efficiently out of 2 WR sets because they have an all-world TE and RB. The Dolphins have a large talent gap at WR after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Bills have invested a lot of cap and draft capital into Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. The Chiefs are struggling to get production out of their WR group as discussed above. The benefit of this for fantasy managers is that targets are more consolidated in offenses that rely less on 3 WR sets (fewer WRs that earn targets are on the field). You don’t need me to tell you to acquire players on these offenses, but it’s simply another positive sign.
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Jalen Hurts: Pressure and Time to Throw
As an Eagles fan, it’s on-brand for me to largely ignore them in my articles after their wins and bring them up after a brutal loss. It’s felt like Hurts has faced a lot more pressure this year, and the numbers back that up. That’s surprising given the quality of their offensive line. Some additional context is needed though.
Jalen Hurts was pressured on 21 of his 50 dropbacks in Week 6. On a per dropback rate, that is 11th highest in Week 6, which matches his position on the season among QBs with at least 5 starts. Yet, in 2022, Hurts ranked 24th in pressures per dropback among QBs with at least 8 games played. Hurts is holding onto the ball longer this year, with the second longest time to throw among qualifying QBs in 2023 compared to 11th in 2022 according to PFF.
The additional context needed here is the Eagles are using deeper drops this year according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS). With that context, Hurts’ pressure rate is still above expectation but it’s not quite as egregious as the top-line numbers suggest. But we still can’t lose to the Jets, my goodness.
Raiders: Run the Damn Ball (Better)
While the Raiders have improved to 3-3 on the season, they haven’t managed more than 21 points in any game this season. From an efficiency standpoint, Jimmy G has been about average. The graph below shows pass EPA on the x-axis and rush EPA on the y-axis. Jimmy G is 14th in EPA per dropback among qualifying QBs. However, this hides that he’s dead-last in the component of EPA derived from interceptions. If we remove the impact of picks, which are a bit fluky, he’s improves all the way up to 3rd in EPA per dropback.
So, the main issue for the Raiders has been their downright dreadful rushing efficiency. And there is blame to go around. Some of it is on the Raiders offensive line. Josh Jacobs is in the bottom 20 of qualifying rushers in yards before contact per attempt according to PFF. But Jacobs certainly shares some blame as well. Jacobs is in the bottom five in yards after contact per attempt. He’s in the bottom 12 in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt and bottom seven in success rate according to Next Gen Stats. The Raiders need more from their star running back.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Sliver of Hope
I couldn’t talk about disappointing RBs without mentioning Rhamondre Stevenson. He’s one of my highest-rostered RBs in dynasty. He finished last season top-10 in RYOE per attempt, not to mention his strong workload in the passing game. The run-out this year has been less than ideal. The Patriots offense has been among the worst in the league, showing up in the bottom-left of the graph above. Rhamondre has also dropped to the bottom three in RYOE per attempt this year. But Week 6 offered some hope. He earned his highest target share of the season and scored his first touchdown since Week 2. The schedule opens up a little bit in the second half of the season when the Patriots get to face the Colts, Giants, and Broncos. I’m buying low on Rhamondre if I can with the knowledge that this situation could still be terrible.
Bijan Robinson: Arthur Smith Hates Your Fantasy Team
While the raw volume has been similar for Bijan in the last two weeks, this hides his share statistics a bit. More specifically, he’s had below 50% of his team’s running back carries in both weeks 5 and 6. The Falcons have also been passing a lot more this season. They already have four games with more pass attempts than rush attempts. This somehow only happened three times all of last season.
Bijan’s efficiency has also lagged the last two weeks. On the season, Bijan is 5th in RYOE per attempt but this masks being 7th to last in both weeks 5 and 6. Moreover, Tyler Allgeier has been slightly better in both games. I’m not really willing to question Bijan’s talent, so my best guess is there has been some regression in the Falcons’ run blocking.
In weeks 5 and 6, Bijan is in the bottom 20% in rushing yards before contact per attempt according to PFF. On the season as a whole, though, he’s in the top 10. I don’t think anyone is panicking too much about Bijan, but if the manager in your league is frustrated by the past two weeks, this might be a small buy window. It depends on your feelings about the Falcons’ offensive line, though, and having to deal with Arthur Smith’s decisions.
Bonus: Interception Model
The interception model had a better week this week but still not quite good enough to be profitable. After nailing Russell Wilson on Thursday night, it went on to be right about half of the time. Here’s hoping for continued improvement in Week 7. My favorite players to throw an interception in Week 7 are Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield. My favorite players to avoid throwing an interception in Week 7 are Geno Smith and Lamar Jackson.
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