Week 10 was an incredibly fun week of football. Two games in particular, the Texans/Bengals and the Lions/Chargers, had a lot of scoring and explosive plays. Thank goodness CJ Stroud is in the league. But on the season, scoring is still down. We have the lowest average points scored since 2017, down from modern highs in 2020 and 2021. I’ll start this week with one possible factor influencing scoring and then dig into some interesting QB/WR pairs.
Rushing Failure Against Light Boxes
The first graph below has two different variables that we’re looking at by season since 2017. In blue is how efficient rushing has been against light boxes, measured by EPA and with light boxes defined as six or fewer defenders at or near the line of scrimmage. In red is the percentage of carries that have come against light boxes. What you’ll notice is that 2023 is easily the worst year since 2019 for rushing efficiency in these scenarios. And defenses are utilizing more and more light boxes in run situations.
I don’t know the exact reason why defenses are so much more successful stopping the run with light boxes this season. I think we’d need to dig further into player weights, fronts, etc. to find an answer. But the end result is that it allows defenses to devote more resources to stopping the pass, particularly explosive pass plays. The second graph below shows air yards per pass attempt for the same seasons. Once again, 2023 has an incredibly low average pass depth.
What’s interesting, though, is this is the first season where both rushing EPA against light boxes is below -0.05/carry and average air yards per attempt are below 8 yards. So, we’re getting both inefficient rushing against light boxes and incredibly shallow pass attempts. Combine this with an inexperienced batch of QBs and this may partially explain lower scoring in 2023.
Falcons: We Play to Lose the Game Slowly
I don’t think its toxic group think to say the Falcons are not optimizing their chances to win football games. The graph below shows pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the x-axis and how much PROE fluctuates by week on the y-axis. The Falcons are all the way to the left. They have the lowest PROE in the league and it’s not particularly close. In Week 10, they had a PROE 20% below expectation. That is the second-lowest rate of any team this season, falling behind only the Giants in Week 8 when Tyrod and DeVito combined for 7 passing yards. They haven’t had a single game this season with a positive PROE.
Frankly, this is unserious football. And this comes with the additional context that they haven’t been particularly efficient when running. They’re in the bottom-third of the NFL in terms of rushing EPA per carry. At least when they did this last year they were 3rd in the league in rushing EPA. The blame for reduced rushing efficiency in 2023 should be placed on the offensive line where we’ve seen some regression. But really the blame is on the coaching staff and the GM. Drake London deserves better.
Steelers: That 6-3 Team in Your Fantasy League that is Last in Points Scored
Speaking of teams that aren’t for real, the Steelers have been outgained in yardage every game this season. They have a point differential of -26. Yet, they’re 6-3 on the season. Compared to the Falcons, the Steelers are downright pass-happy, though they are slightly below average in PROE. This might make some sense for the Steelers, though, as they’re bottom-8 in passing efficiency but above average in rushing EPA. Jaylen Warren is, of course, the truth, landing in the top-4 in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE).
But that won’t be enough with how Kenny Pickett is playing. The graph below shows completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on the x-axis and average air yards per attempt on the y-axis. Kenny Pickett lands in the bottom-left quadrant. He’s completing fewer passes than expected given the context of his pass attempts, most of which are not that far down the field. The Steelers somehow won with Pickett only putting up 126 passing yards in Week 10 and targeting his best two receivers a total of 8 times. This simply isn’t sustainable. The best-case scenario for this team is a first-round playoff exit.
Chargers: Stop Trying to Make QJ Happen
Turning to some teams that are fun to watch, the Chargers/Lions game in Week 10 was incredibly entertaining. The two teams went for it on 4th down eight times, converting seven of those attempts. The Chargers ultimately lost the game 41-38, but I’d struggle to put any blame for that loss on Justin Herbert. At some points during the game, Herbert’s top receiver was Jalen Guyton and he responds by doing this.
And with that in mind, it’s past time to remove any expectations for Quentin Johnson this season. It was the absolute best possible scenario for a bump in production and it simply didn’t happen. On top of their WR woes, the Chargers’ defense is not getting the job done. The graph below has defensive pass EPA on the x-axis and defensive rush EPA on the y-axis. The Chargers find themselves in the middle-right of the graph, which is to say average against the run but bottom-7 against the pass. The linebacker and secondary groups continue to get taken advantage of by opposing offenses. Please get Justin Herbert some help.
Ravens: The Rushing Offense is *Too* Good
Lamar Jackson has been fantastic this year. The Ravens are above average in passing efficiency as the graph below shows and Lamar is among the leaders in the league in CPOE. But at least in the past three weeks, this hasn’t corresponded with big fantasy outings. His last multi-TD game was in Week 7, which is also the last time that he’s thrown for more than 225 passing yards. Yet, the Ravens have scored at least 31 points in each of the last three games. So, what gives?
I think the graph below also has that answer. The Ravens lead the league in rushing EPA per carry. Gus Edwards has been efficient this season, as he’s been above average in both RYOE and success rate. And Keaton Mitchell has been extremely exciting the past two weeks. On an incredibly small sample (he ranks 126th in rushing attempts), Keaton Mitchell is 1st in yards per carry, 1st in missed tackles forced per carry, and tied for 1st in 30+ yard rushing TDs. So, the “problem” for Lamar’s recent fantasy performance is the Ravens rushing offense has simply been too good. I wouldn’t panic though; they have an outlier share of TDs coming from rushing over the past three weeks that should regress.
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Brandin Cooks: Dead Cat Bounce
Brandin Cooks seemingly came out of nowhere in Week 10, catching nine passes for 173 yards and a touchdown. Prior to this game, he hadn’t topped 50 receiving yards all season. And credit to Cooks for a fantastic game, but I think this has more to do with Dak Prescott playing absolutely outside of his mind at the moment. Among full-time starters, Dak is now in second in CPOE, falling behind only Jalen Hurts. Similarly, the Cowboys are top-three in the league in passing EPA per play.
I wouldn’t expect a lot of games like this from Cooks, though. He simply hasn’t been very good on the season. He had a 33 overall receiver rating from ESPN Analytics through Week 9, which is a good bit below average. CeeDee Lamb, meanwhile, has the second-highest score in the league, behind only AJ Brown. Anything is possible with Dak playing lights out football, but I wouldn’t buy Cooks sustaining anything near his Week 10 performance in future weeks.
Please Tell Me It’s Jameis Time
It was a story of two very different halves for Chris Olave. And the main character of the story was Jameis Winston. I don’t know why Derek Carr didn’t pass the ball to Chris Olave. He has a 72 open score according to ESPN Analytics, which is good enough for 18th in the league. But he earned a total of zero targets in the first half against the Vikings. Early in the second half, however, Derek Carr was forced from the game due to a concussion and shoulder issues. Enter Jameis Winston, who promptly peppered Olave with targets. Olave was able to finish the day with six receptions, 94 yards, and a beautiful touchdown where he out-jumped Byron Murphy and toe-tapped the corner of the endzone. I’d be happy with more Jameis Winston in New Orleans.
As an aside, it wasn’t Rashid Shaheed but AT Perry who earned more playing time after Michael Thomas left with injury. This is more for the radar of deep leagues, but Perry did lead all Saints skill players in snaps against the Vikings. He finished the day with four targets, two receptions, 38 yards, and touchdown. He doesn’t have draft capital on his side, but he is an interesting size/speed prospect. He’s worth a look in deeper formats.
Rachaad White: Miscast
I’m not sure there is a running back in the league whose role confuses me more than Rachaad White’s. Rachaad has been a fantastic receiver in 2023. He leads all RBs in overall receiver rating from ESPN Analytics. And he’s earned the 12th-most targets per game among RBs. That makes complete sense. What doesn’t make sense are his carries up the middle between the 20s. Rachaad has been incredibly inefficient rushing the football this season. He’s 4th-worst in RYOE per attempt. As a result, the Buccaneers are dead-last in rushing EPA per carry on the season. Perhaps the issue is the Bucs don’t have anyone else to give those carries between the 20s. But I’d love to see someone like Khalil Herbert take those carries and let White shine in his receiving role.
Amari Cooper: On/Off Splits
The Browns passing offense hasn’t been good this season. They’re bottom-five in passing EPA per attempt. Yet, this does hide some interesting on/off splits when Deshaun Watson has been injured. And the most interesting one might be for Amari Cooper. According to JJ Zachariason, in games where Watson has played the majority of Browns’ snaps, Cooper has averaged 17.6 PPR points per game. This compares to only 9.1 PPR points per game without Watson. Unfortunately for Cooper, Watson has just been ruled out for the season. I would try trading Cooper away after three straight good games and a particularly difficult schedule in the fantasy playoffs.
Deep-League Titans
With Treylon Burks ruled out in Week 10, Chris Moore actually ran the second-most routes for the Titans. However, he didn’t do much with the opportunity and isn’t on the fantasy radar. Kyle Philips actually led the team in receiving yards, and now has back-to-back games with 5 targets and over 60 yards. But with the return of Treylon hopefully in Week 11, it’d be difficult to continue trusting Philips. Josh Whyle, the rookie TE, was also a lot more involved in Week 10. He earned five targets but only had two receptions and 16 yards. This is probably more of a ding to Okonkwo rather than another fantasy-viable TE in all but the deepest leagues.
Bonus: Interception Model
Week 10 was an average week for the interception model. It was correct 59% of the time, which is the exact percentage it hit during testing. And it was correct on the QB where it had the most conviction, which was Geno Smith not throwing an interception. For Week 11, I’m going back to Geno as the model has him with low interception odds again (34%). Trevor Lawrence also has low odds on the week (36%). Meanwhile, CJ Stroud has particularly high odds to throw at least one pick in Week 11 (58%). Best of luck this week!
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