Happy Thanksgiving everyone! This will be a *slightly* abridged article since I’ve got family in town for the holiday. Let’s get to it!
Tony Pollard: Success by Run Location
This is a safe space for frustrated Tony Pollard managers. But we finally got a TD in Week 11; his first since Week 1. And it seemed like Pollard exorcised some demons on that TD run as well, breaking a few tackles on the way to the endzone. By the infamous eye test, he looked a bit more explosive last week as well. Yet, it’ll be a surprise to exactly no one that he’s been less efficient in 2023 compared to 2022. Among other reasons, I thought his lack of success could be play-calling related. Specifically, the run gaps he’s been tasked with not suiting his playing style. The numbers unfortunately don’t back that up.
The below table shows Tony Pollard’s carries by season split into run gap and adjusted a bit to split out carries that were defined as up the middle. The “mean” column is average EPA per carry and the “count” column is the number of attempts. You’ll notice that he already has more carries up the middle in 11 weeks in 2023 compared to all of 2022. But he was most efficient last year on those attempts and that is the case again in 2023. The biggest change is the shift away from carries to the end and the very large drop in efficiency on those attempts. That efficiency drop definitely takes the wind out of my sails as I yell at the TV to get him into space more often.
Titans: We Play to Lose the Game Slowly
This is the same header as we had for the Falcons last week. And for good reason. The graph below shows pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the x-axis and how much PROE fluctuates by week on the y-axis. The Titans are in the bottom-left corner in the “Run Heavy Consistent” quadrant.
In Week 11, despite being down the entirety of the game, the Titans had a PROE of -10.4%. So, they passed the ball about 10% less frequently than a typical team would given factors like the score, down, distance, etc. That was the second-lowest PROE mark on the week behind only the Bears, who also ultimately lost but at least had a lead at some points. I’ll never understand this approach if your only goal is to win a football game.
Garrett Wilson: Please Get Him a QB
Garrett Wilson managed only 9 yards on 8 targets in Week 11. So, he earned 0.9 standard fantasy points despite a 30% target share. Tee Higgins is the only other player this season to have over a 25% target share and garner less than 1 fantasy point this season. He did so against the Browns in Week 1. The Jets are finally making a QB switch after suffering through most of the season with Zach Wilson. The Jets are dead-last in the league in passing EPA per dropback. Unfortunately, I don’t know if Tim Boyle will be much better. According to Next Gen Stats, he was about equally as bad in completion percentage over expectation in his limited Week 11 snaps. Can we please get someone even below-average to pass the ball to Garrett Wilson?
Brock Purdy’s Insane Efficiency Returns
Unlike the Jets, the 49ers lead the league in passing EPA per dropback and it’s no longer even close. The graph below has pass EPA on the x-axis and rush EPA on the y-axis. The 49ers find themselves alone all the way to the right on the graph. Purdy seems to have returned to the elite efficiency he was performing at to start the year. In Week 11, he earned a completion percentage 13.7% above expected according to Next Gen Stats. That was good for second highest on the day behind only…Justin Fields (how about that?). Passer rating is a flawed stat but when you end the game with a perfect rating, it means you did well lol. And readers of this series will not be surprised to learn that this is great news for Brandon Aiyuk, who still has the second-highest receiver score from ESPN Analytics, behind only AJ Brown. Wheels continue to be all the way up for Aiyuk.
Russell Wilson Checkdowns
According to Next Gen Stats, Week 11 was Russell Wilson’s 6th game of the season where he targeted receivers out of the backfield at a rate of at least 30%. No other QB this season has more than 2 of these games. The graph below shows completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on the x-axis and average air yards per attempt on the y-axis. Unsurprisingly, Wilson is near the bottom of the graph given his propensity for passes near the line of scrimmage. Combine this with the PROE graph above where the Broncos are both run heavy and very consistent in this approach, it’s pretty clear the Broncos are trying to win in spite of Russ, not because of Russ. I don’t personally think this is the correct approach but their record has been improving on the back of a massive, unexpected improvement in their defense.
Jayden Reed: Deebo Lite?
I’m just kidding with the Deebo comparison. But Jayden Reed had some really interesting usage in Week 11. In addition to his 6 targets, Jayden Reed also got 3 rushing attempts that he turned into 46 yards and a touchdown. While I’ll keep sleeping on Jordan Love, I don’t think you should do the same with Jayden Reed. His snap share continues to rise in recent weeks and the Packers have a few quality matchups for slot WRs coming up on their schedule. I’m hoping his usage continues to increase.
Trey McBride Outshining Marquise Brown?
Since Kyler’s return to the field, Trey McBride has been the Cardinals pass catcher you’ve wanted in your lineup, not Marquise Brown. In the past two weeks combined, McBride has earned 16 targets, 13 receptions, and 174 receiving yards. Over that same stretch, Marquise has earned only 9 targets, 3 receptions, and 46 receiving yards. This might not be a fluke. McBride is tied for 15th in ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metric score on the season. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown has a below-average score and is tied for 84th. Things most likely won’t continue to be this bad, as Kyler has just missed Marquise on a few big plays. But it’s not a stretch to think McBride could continue to be the pass catcher you want in Arizona.
Courtland Sutton Rollercoaster
Courtland Sutton continued the absolute heater he’s been on in the TD department in Week 11. He’s now scored in five consecutive games and in eight of the ten games he’s played this season. This is clearly not sustainable and likely to come to an end in Week 12 against an elite Browns defense. According to ESPN Analytics, Sutton has elite open and catch scores, but the worst YAC score in the entire league. That matches his play style watching the games. But after this week, Sutton does have some quality matchups, including the opportunity to play the Chargers’ abysmal pass defense twice in both Week 14 and in Week 17 for fantasy championships.
David Njoku: Short Target King
I feel like it’s gone slightly under the radar that David Njoku earned 15 (!) targets in Week 11. Dorian Thompson-Robinson seemed to only have eyes for him. Unfortunately for Njoku, he wasn’t able to do much with the volume, finishing with seven receptions and 56 yards. To Njoku’s credit, the targets were extremely close to the line of scrimmage. DTR finished the game with an air yards per attempt mark of only 3.3 yards. That was two full yards below the next closest QB. That frankly can’t continue, which should reduce Njoku’s volume in future weeks in favor of the Browns’ WRs.
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Interception Model
Week 11 was another great week for the interception model. It correctly predicted whether a QB would throw at least one interception 68% of the time. And it was correct on Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence, and CJ Stroud; the three players that I called out in last week’s article. This week, the model gives Jared Goff only 39% odds to throw at least one pick, so I like the under there. I also don’t mind the under on Brock Purdy (41%) given the way he’s been playing recently.
Have a great Thanksgiving everyone!
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