The primary focus for today is recent changes in passing game tendencies. And there is no better place to start than Canada…I mean Pittsburgh.
O Canada
Kenny Pickett earned his best total EPA mark of the season in Week 12. And the Steelers infamously generated over 400 yards of offense for the first time in 59 games. It just so happened to be the week after their previous offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, was fired. With Canada at the helm, the Steelers offense focused heavily on passes to the boundaries of the field. From Weeks 1 through 11, only 14% of Pickett’s pass attempts were to the middle of the field. And I’ve brought up in the past how efficient middle-of-the-field passing is in the context of both Tua and CJ Stroud.
This changed sharply for Pickett in Week 12. He found a particular connection with Pat Freiermuth and saw his share of passes to the middle of the field more than double to 30%. The graph below shows pass efficiency via EPA by pass location. The x-axis is EPA per dropback for passes over the middle, while the y-axis shows passes to the outside. You’ll find Kenny Pickett’s full-season mark in the bottom-left, around Desmond Ridder and Zach Wilson. But I’ve also plotted just his Week 12 performance, which lands in the top-right near Tua and Stroud. I’d heavily doubt that this level of efficiency continues for Pickett, but it’s at least some reason for optimism and also great news for Freiermuth who has a nice schedule for TEs the rest of the way.
Luke Getsy: Chicago Matt Canada
Shoutout to Derek Brown for reading my mind with this tweet on Monday night. Justin Fields finished Week 12 with an average air yards per attempt mark of 2.7 yards. I genuinely don’t remember seeing a number that low before. The chart below shows all of Fields’ pass attempts against the Vikings. 46% of his total attempts came at or behind the line of scrimmage. I wonder if the WR-screen TD to Moore in the preseason broke the Bears for the entire season? And look at how few of those attempts came in the middle of the field. Meanwhile, the game-winning throw to DJ Moore was a strike…over the middle of the field. Maybe the Bears should try that more often?
Panthers: The Last Straw
Speaking of WR screens, I wonder if the 4th down WR screen that ended the game for the Panthers spelled the end for Frank Reich’s tenure. There’s not much to be optimistic about regarding Bryce Young on the season. The graph below shows completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on the x-axis and air yards per attempt on the y-axis. Bryce Young is now tied with Tyson Bagent for the lowest air yards per attempt on the season. And he’s completing passes below expectation given the context of his shallow attempts.
I will say, if you’re looking for reasons to be optimistic, Young did have some solid late-down conversions in Week 12. Plus, the skill players surrounding him are arguably the worst in the NFL. It’s certainly not over for Young, but he’ll forever be viewed in comparison to CJ Stroud and it’s looking dim at the moment.
Green Bay: Leaning on Love?
Continuing with QBs I’ve been critical of in previous weeks, Jordan Love actually had a great game in Week 12. This is in spite of getting basically nothing out of the run game. Without Aaron Jones, the Packers had by far their highest pass rate over expected (PROE) mark of the season, hitting +12.8% versus their previous season-high of +7.2% back in Week 4. The graph below shows PROE on the x-axis and how much a team’s PROE fluctuates weekly on the y-axis. The Packers are in the top-middle of the graph, not showing a strong tendency towards the pass or run on the season.
As we saw in the CPOE graph above, Jordan Love has always had a high average depth of target, but his CPOE has been in the bottom-5 of all eligible QBs. That changed in Week 12 when he finished in the top-6 with a strong +7.3% CPOE to go along with a top-3 average air yards mark. His TD rate is still a bit elevated but it’s a lot more sustainable than it was earlier in the year when regression was certainly going to hit. I’m excited to see if we get more performances like this from Love or if he turns back into a pumpkin in the weeks to come.
Motion in Houston
Earlier in the season, I called out Miami as a team that was using a ton of motion pre-snap. They are using it to weaponize the speed of their WRs by launching them when the ball is snapped. I think Houston is another interesting team to mention. The graph below shows passing EPA per dropback with pre-snap motion on the x-axis and that same measure without pre-snap motion on the y-axis. For the entire league, passing efficiency has been about the same for plays with and without motion.
However, there are teams like the Dolphins and Texans that are performing better with motion. And the Texans seem to have leaned into this tendency in recent weeks. Since Week 6, the Texans are 4th in the use of pre-snap motion and have the 2nd-highest EPA/dropback on pass attempts with motion. Another in a string of positive indicators for the Texans’ passing offense.
Brevin Jordan Szn?
Speaking of the Texans, their TE playing time was interesting in Week 12. Dalton Schultz was only on the field for 25 of their passing snaps (56%), with Brevin Jordan taking the remaining 20 snaps. Prior to Week 12, Schultz had dominated passing snaps, staying on the field for 79% of all passing snaps. I’m certainly not the biggest Dalton Schultz defender, but he’s actually been pretty good this year. He ranks 8th among TEs in ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metric. And while Brevin Jordan doesn’t have enough targets to qualify, he’s had a worse score than Schultz’s 2023 mark in both 2021 and 2022. Assuming Schultz wasn’t injured, I think this move is better news for Tank Dell and Nico Collins than it is a huge boon to Brevin Jordan’s fantasy prospects. But it does mean Schultz isn’t a viable fantasy TE until his snap share bounces back.
49ers: Rushing Efficiency Returns
The rushing efficiency for the 49ers really dipped prior to Week 12, including being downright inefficient in three of their previous four games. That changed sharply against the Seahawks. The graph below shows passing EPA on the x-axis and rushing EPA on the y-axis. The 49ers finished with 0.23 EPA/rush in Week 12. That is an absolutely insane efficiency mark. If they maintained that for the season, it would break the graph below and would be more valuable than all but two passing offenses. That means continued volatility for players like George Kittle as the 49ers don’t need to pass a ton to win.
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Kyren Williams: Career Day
Continuing on the ground, Kyren Williams set career-highs in both rushing and receiving yards over expected in his first game back from IR. The graph below showing rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt on the x-axis and Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. Kyren Williams lands in the top-right quadrant for the season and paced every running back in RYOE/attempt in Week 12.
One interesting note is that according to Next Gen Stats, Kyren Williams has 113 rushing attempts this season but zero of those have come with 8 or more defenders in the box. He’s the only running back with anywhere near that number of attempts that can say that. Theoretically, RYOE is taking that into account but no model is perfect especially with an outlier metric like Williams’. Regardless, his volume is absolutely insane and fantasy managers should be happy he’s back.
Javonte: TDs Mask Rising Snaps
I think an under-the-radar trend is that Javonte Williams’ snap share is rising in Denver. It didn’t result in a big fantasy day, but he did get 18 carries and earned six targets in Week 12. Unfortunately, Samaje Perine happened to be on the field for half of the Broncos’ goal-line opportunities and was able to punch one in on the ground. Additionally, Russell Wilson ran a season-high 11 times and scored a rushing TD of his own. As you saw in the RYOE graph above, Javonte Williams is top-5 in success rate on the season. I’d trust the talent and the rising opportunities and buy now if your league settings allow you to trade.
Giving Zay His Flowers
The Ravens are on bye in Week 13 but I still wanted to talk about Zay Flowers. He’s currently 17th in ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metric. The split between his open, catch, and YAC scores is very similar to other WRs I love like Tank Dell. His best skill is getting open, which is a skill that consistently correlates with target volume. And in Week 12, Zay earned 8 targets, his 4th-highest mark of the season. I think we have some more heavy-Zay target days ahead with Mark Andrews out.
Additionally, we might see some more carries given the success he had in Week 12. According to Next Gen Stats, his attempt had less than a 1% chance to result in a TD when he received his handoff. The Ravens also have a fantastic fantasy playoff schedule, getting the Jaguars, 49ers, and Dolphins in Weeks 15 through 17. I think we see more of Zay beating man coverage in the intermediate areas of the field the rest of the way.
Bonus: Interception Model
Week 12 was a below-average week for the interception model. It correctly predicted whether a QB would throw an interception only half of the time, which is not good enough to be profitable. It’s the worst week we’ve had in a bit but still not abysmal. In Week 13, my favorite plays are Trevor Lawrence (38%) and Kenny Pickett (42%) not to throw an interception. Both of these teams are favored and both QBs have below-average turnover-worthy play rates according to PFF.
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