Updated NFL FanDuel Super-Early Lineup Advice for 9/13/15

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Four weeks ago, when FanDuel published their contests for Week 1 of the NFL season, I wrote an article about my thinking process in formulating a cash game line-up. Two weeks is a lot of time in the NFL and some things have changed, so I thought I’d do an update to that article.

If the season were to begin next week, this would be my new cash game line-up. If anything changes (and it probably will), I’ll post my final cash game line-up a few days before the season begins

QB Carson Palmer ($7,700) I had Cam Newton here originally, but the injury to Kelvin Benjamin has taken Newton out of cash game consideration. Instead, I’ve pivoted to Carson Palmer. Palmer is as consistent as they come, averaging 17.8 fantasy points a game last season, more than several higher priced quarterbacks, before he was injured. He faces a Saints defense that was ranked 27^th against the pass last season.

RB Eddie Lacy ($8,500) Lacy had 1566 total yards and 13 TDs last year and will be facing a Bears defense that was rated 32d overall and 21^st against the run. Furthermore, the Packers are favored in a game that’s projected to be high scoring, meaning Lacy should be out there in the 4^th quarter helping his team grind out the clock. Yes, please.

RB Latavius Murray ($7.400) When he was given a chance to start in the final 5 games last season, Murray averaged 13.06 fantasy points per game. He’ll need 14.8 to pay off his salary here. He goes against the Bengals, who had the 28^th “best” rush defense last season. This game is being played at Oakland and is projected to be close, which should mean Murray will be in play throughout the game.

WR Alshon Jeffrey ($8,400) Brandon Marshall is now in New York and the 7^th overall pick in the draft, WR Kevin White is injured. This means that Jeffrey, who slashed an 85/1133/10 line last season, is now the unquestioned #1 receiving option in Chicago. Jeffrey was 7^th in the NFL last year with 145 targets and will be facing Green Bay in what’s projected to be a high scoring games with the Bears playing from behind.

WR Jordan Matthews($6,800) With Jeremy Maclin now gone, Matthews is the pass-happy Eagles leading returning received facing a Falcons team rated 30^th against the pass last season by Football Outsiders. It doesn’t hurt that this game is projected to be one of the highest scoring of the day. It doesn’t get much easier than this.

WR Victor Cruz ($6,300) Most people are going to be focusing on Odell Beckham Jr in this game, but I prefer the discounted Cruz. He was the #1 receiver in New York before he went down with an injury. That and the running game disappearing is what led to Beckham’s breakout. Also working in Cruz’s favor is that this game is projected to be high scoring with the Giants playing from behind (notice a trend?) The recent injury to Dallas’ top CB, Orlando Scandrick, only enhances Cruz’s value.

TE Greg Olsen ($5,900) While Benjamin’s injury has hurt Newton’s value, it helped Olsen’s. It’s rare that a tight end is a team’s #1 receiving option, but that’s what we have here. Olsen was already targeted 122 times last season and should also see some of Benjamin’s 146 “missing targets.” Finally the Jaguars were ranked 22^nd last season by Football Outsiders against the TE.

K Brandon McManus ($4,500) Honestly, this isn’t my favorite play in my line up. I would rather have had Cody Parkey or Dan Bailey, but salary considerations dictated otherwise. Still McManus checks most of my blocks for kickers. High scoring game, playing at home for a team that’s projected to win (meaning the team won’t be going for it on 4^th down in FG range late in the game.) The only block unchecked is that he’s playing outside.

Defense NY Jets ($4,400) Last season the Jets had a great front seven, but the secondary was a mess. CBs Antonio Cromartie and Darrelle Revis change that and they get to face the Browns offense, which has been even worse in the preseason than they were last year when they ranked 28^th in overall offense. Add to this the game will be played in New York and you have an easy selection here.

 

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