Happy Holidays to one and all, welcome to Week 12. How are you doing? This is not only a Holiday week but a week without a bye. Hopefully, you did very well with your Thanksgiving slate and remembered that you had the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets playing on Friday.
Enough small talk. Let’s get to this week’s smash, cash, or trash.
Smash Plays
QB, Joshua Dobbs v Chicago Bears, Vikings -3.5, 43 o/u
This isn’t just jumping on the Dobbs hype train (although it is), nor is it piling on the state of the Chicago Bears (although it is). It is also about the numbers, too.
The Bears are giving up an average of 254 passing yards per game. Quarterbacks are averaging 2.0 touchdowns per game and collecting 21.9 fantasy points.
The Bears have played Jared Goff, Bryce Young, and Derek Carr in the last three weeks. Goff had two touchdowns, three interceptions, and 236 passing yards. Carr also collected 211 passing yards and two touchdowns. Young only passed for 185 yards.
Dobbs has amazed and astonished. In his first week as a Minnesota quarterback, he went 23 of 34 for 268 yards with one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown. Last week against the Denver Broncos, he threw for 221 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
There are rumors that he will also get the Vikings’ number-one receiver back on the field this week. This is a smash for everyone.
RB, Rachaad White @ Indianapolis Colts, Colts -1.5, 42.5 o/u
The Colts aren’t allowing many rushing yards per game, but they are giving up an average of 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game. Add to that a generous 18.9 fantasy points to the running back position. The Colts also allow 38.9 receiving yards to the running back and 4.9 receptions.
White isn’t winning you money in standard leagues, but he is helping your fortunes in PPR leagues. White is averaging 4.1 targets with a 13.0% target share. He has 28 red zone touches and a 93.2% catch rate.
If you are in PPR, this is a smash call. If you are in a standard, it is a cash call. That is called waffling.
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WR, Odell Beckham Jr., @ Los Angeles Chargers, Ravens-4, 46.5
This game will be played Prime Time on Sunday Night, which alone is reason enough to roster Beckham. But then there is the bonus of Beckham playing against the Chargers defense. The Chargers pass rush will be without Joey Bosa. The secondary just surrendered two receiving touchdowns to the Green Bay Packers’ Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson while allowing rookie Dontayvion Wicks to accumulate 91 receiving yards on three receptions.
Last week, Beckham was on the field for 34.8% of the offensive snaps. He led the team in targets (7), receptions (4) and receiving yards (116). Out of his seven targets, two were inside the 20-yard line.
The Ravens have also lost the services of tight end Mark Andrews. The loss of Andrews leaves a hole as big as a 22.6% target share.
TE, David Njoku @ Denver Broncos, Broncos -1.5, 36.5 o/u
The statistics say the Broncos are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (9.4). They don’t tell you that the last three tight ends the Broncos faced were T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Kincaid, and Travis Kelce. That’s pretty formidable.
However, Njoku isn’t a slouch. Last week with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Njoku led the team in targets with 15. He was the only player to have double targets. The next was Amari Cooper, with eight. So, if Thompson-Robinson is going to feed Njoku, he should feast (see what I did there) against a team that has allowed tight ends to gain some traction.
Cash Plays
QB, Gardner Minshew v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Colts -1.5, 42.5 o/u
So, is anything going on in Indy? No?
The Colts are coming off their bye week. Minshew has been doing just enough not to make them lose. Against the New England Patriots, Minshew went 18/28, 194 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception. He rushed two times for -1 yards. The fact that Minshew is 2-3 since becoming the de-facto starter and the Colts can still see a path to the playoffs is good for the Colts. His eight touchdowns, six interceptions, and five fumbles sting for fantasy managers.
But we, too, can see a path this week where Minshew could lead us to a fantasy win.
The Buccaneers defense allows quarterbacks an average of 290.1 passing yards a game. They give up 1.6 passing touchdowns and 22.3 fantasy points to the position. I don’t know if you heard, but last week, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was perfect against them. Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud hit them up for 470 passing yards and five touchdowns. Between these two Tennessee Titans, Will Levis only managed 199 yards and an interception. I am putting Minshew firmly ahead of Levis and behind Stroud and Purdy. I’m not good at math, but that should be good for about 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns?
RB, Kyren Williams @ Arizona Cardinals, Rams-1, 46.5 o/u
First, let me say I am flabbergasted that this game has four points more predictive total than the Baker Mayfield / Minshew battle. Two-gun slingers fighting it out versus injury-plagued Rams and a Kyler Murray? Murray, I get it, but Rams?
Second, I have to admit I am slightly hesitant to suggest any running back coming back from an IR designation after watching De’Von Achane last week.
But the Rams waived Darrell Henderson and then signed him to the practice squad, so they must believe Williams is ready to go.
Plus, Williams’ return is a potential smash spot. The Cardinals are giving up 110.8 rushing yards per game. They have allowed at least one rushing touchdown per game to the running back position, and running backs are averaging 20.2 fantasy points against them.
If Williams was completely healthy, like, say, in Week 6 when the Rams played the Cardinals. Do you remember that week when Williams ran for 158 and had a rushing touchdown against them? Then this would be a smash, but the flashbacks from rostering Achane and then seeing him succumb to the friggin injury monster right after coming back have me tempering my expectations.
WR Diontae Johnson @ Cincinnati Bengals, Steelers -1, 34.5 o/u
Color me overly optimistic that maybe the Steelers offense will show some explosive plays now. (It’s all on you, Kenny Pickett!)
The Bengals allow the wide receiver position to average 173 yards and 21.8 fantasy points per game. The receiver out wide is getting 69% of those fantasy points.
Both Johnson and George Pickens have accumulated the majority of their fantasy points wide, Johnson 92% and Pickens 94%. But since his return, Johnson has a cut into Pickens target share and catches per game. With Johnson in the game, Pickens’s target share went from 28.9 to 19.6. Johnson’s catches per game went from 4.25 to 2.67.
There is (hopefully) a new offense in place, so anything goes, but Johnson appears to be the safer floor for now.
TE, Kyle Pitts v New Orleans Saints, Falcons -1, 41.5 o/u
The Saints are tied for giving up the second most fantasy points to the tight end position (7.8). In what should be a smash spot for Pitts, we are handcuffed by the mediocrity of an Arthur Smith offense.
So, my stats say Pitts (or Jonnu Smith; this is Arthur Smith, after all) should smash, and here I am hoping for a cash spot.
Trash Plays
QB, Russell Wilson v Cleveland Browns, Broncos -1.5, 36.5 o/u
Here is what I believe: 1) Wilson is playing better than last year; 2) his QB14 in fantasy points is just good enough; and 3) the Browns are a much better defense than the Minnesota Vikings.
In their last three games, the Browns have allowed one passing touchdown while collecting four interceptions. They are yielding an average of 201.5 passing yards per game, and the last three quarterbacks have 5.1, 15, and 1.1 fantasy points against them. Okay, that was Pickett and Clayton Tune, but the 15 fantasy points were from Lamar Jackson. I’m just saying while Wilson is marginally better than Pickett, he isn’t Jackson.
RB, James Cook @ Philadelphia Eagles, Eagles -3.5, 48.5 o/u
The Eagles allowed Kansas City Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco to run for 89 yards against them last week. I am chalking that up to post-bye-week rust. Before the bye week, running backs averaged 59.8 rushing yards against them. The last rushing touchdown scored against them was by Breece Hall in Week 6.
The last time Cook had a rushing touchdown was in Week 4 against the Miami Dolphins. And now this backfield has added Leonard Fournette. I don’t like it.
WR, Amari Cooper @ Denver Broncos, Broncos -1.5, 36.5 o/u
Cooper collects 84% of his fantasy points out wide. The Broncos allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the wide position (14.5).
In this matchup, you are playing Njoku and Jerome Ford. Do not mess with Justin Simmons or Patrick Surtain if it is not absolutely necessary.
TE, Cade Otton @ Indianapolis Colts, Colts -1.5, 42.5 o/u
I am a big fan of Otton. This matchup, not so much. The Colts are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position (3.1). Only one tight end, Brenton Strange, has scored a touchdown against them in Week 6.
For you, purist Taysom Hill scored two touchdowns against them, but they counted as rushing touchdowns, as he was performing one of his many hybrid roles.
“I am just thankful for the people that never left me and equally thankful for those who did.”—Nitya Prakash
Happy Holidays, everyone play fair, and be good to yourselves.
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