It is getting crunch time, and we are all feeling the crunch. Whether you are holding on to that last playoff position (me), living to beat teams that are holding on to that playoff position (also me), or sitting pretty atop the standings (not me), it is time to buckle down, my friends.
Six teams are on a bye this week, and the fallout could be catastrophic. The teams are the Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers), the Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs), the Chicago Bears (Justin Fields and D.J. Moore), the Las Vegas Raiders (Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams), the Minnesota Vikings (Jordan Addison and pre-Week12 Joshua Dobbs) and New York Giants (Saquon Barkley). That is some serious firepower that needs to be replaced.
My bad on the Dobbs smash, and the Odell Beckham Jr. smash. I secretly believe Zay Flowers is my not-so-secret nemesis. But yea, on Kyren Williams? What is even happening?
But you know who has almost an 89% correct rate? Yep, @theBleaguesays, Pick ’em. And I just happen to have that for you.
Smash Plays
QB, Brock Purdy @ Philadelphia Eagles, 49ers -1.0, 46.5 o/u
This game should be even better than last week’s Buffalo Bills @ Eagles extravaganza. Should be. Because the Eagles have allowed two of the last three quarterbacks to pass for over 300+ yards. And all three quarterbacks have had multiple touchdown passes against the Eagles.
And Purdy, well, he’s been quite good in the last three weeks. Even throwing out the perfect game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Purdy has passed for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Seattle Seahawks. He passed for 296 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In addition to his 9.6 yards per passing attempt and 19 passing touchdowns to six interceptions, Purdy does have two rushing touchdowns under his belt.
This game has the second-highest predictive total, and Purdy should be up to the challenge.
RB, Najee Harris v Arizona Cardinals, Steelers -5.5, 39.5 o/u
Last week ushered in the first game of the post-Matt Canada era. It ended with the Steelers collecting 431 total yards for the first time since 2020. Harris, feeling the footsteps of Jaylen Warren, stepped up.
Harris led the duo with 15 rushing attempts, 99 yards and a touchdown. Warren led with three targets.
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This is good news not only because the Cardinals give up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (22.2) but also because they just allowed Kyren Williams to run for 143 yards on his first game back from IR. And it is not just an anomaly. Week 11, Houston Texans Devin Singletary ran for 112 yards on 22 carries against the Cardinals. Harris looks good to get to the century mark this game, but I wouldn’t be mad at a Warren play.
WR, Brandon Aiyuk v Philadelphia Eagles, 49ers -1.0, 46.5 o/u
In Bobby LaMarco’s brilliant slot versus wide analysis, there are many interesting facts to learn. Two of the most interesting ones are that the Philadelphia Eagles are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (49.3). In that total, 45% of those points go to the slot receiver and 55% to the receiver out wide.
An equally detailed analysis shows that Aiyuk earns 70% of his fantasy points outwide. Deebo Samuel gets 62% of his fantasy points out wide, so it is kinda a win-win for the 49ers.
So, this is just really laying the percentages here. Last week, Samuel led in targets (9-4), receptions (7-2) and yards (79-50). Aiyuk had one touchdown. Week 11 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the Aiyuk and George Kittle show. Kittle led in targets (9-6), and both had one touchdown. Aiyuk led in yards (156-89).
In redraft, smash whichever one you have and feel good about it.
TE, Chigoziem Okonkwo v Indianapolis Colts, Colts -2.0, 42.5 o/u
The Colts give up 56.0 yards per game to the tight end position. They are also allowing 5.4 fantasy points per game to the position. Okonkwo had five targets, four receptions, and 45 yards last week.
Perhaps quarterback Will Levis will keep up the momentum and target Okonkwo as he did last week.
Cash Plays
QB, Jalen Hurts v San Francisco 49ers, 49er -1.0, 46.5 o/u
Hurts has a horrible matchup on paper. The 49ers allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position (13.0). They also have not allowed a rushing touchdown to the quarterback position.
But are we really going to bet against Hurts at home? Hurts has two, two, and one rushing touchdown in his last three games. He has passed for 200, 150, and 207 yards.
And then there is the Push Tush, the Brotherly Love Pat. Let’s just get Hurts into the endzone move that I will never bet against.
Per footballdatabase.com, the 49ers only allow 233.7 passing yards per game, 1.0 passing touchdowns, and 13.8 rushing yards to the quarterback per game. But again, we are not betting against Hurts in this game.
RB, Rachaad White v Carolina Panthers, Buccaneers -6.0, 38.5 o/u
I’m pretty sure we have been over this before. If you play in a standard league, White isn’t your knight in shining armor. But if you play PPR, he is riding in for the rescue.
The Panthers have given up the third most fantasy points to the running back position (22.1). That includes giving up 66 targets, 265 yards, and three receiving touchdowns to the running back position.
White has 46 targets, 43 receptions, and one touchdown for the season. He is averaging 33.1 receiving yards per game. That is in addition to his 50.8 rushing yards per game, with four touchdowns.
Last week, he had 100 rushing yards for the first time this season. If he can keep the rushing totals up and add in his fantasy saving receiving totals, he becomes a smash, not just a cash.
WR, Jonathan Mingo @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buccaneers -6.0, 38.5 o/u
I am a big fan of the team bump when there is a regime change (I’m pretty sure I’ve said that recently). I am not saying the Panthers will pull off an upset (I’m not saying they won’t). I’m just saying maybe Bryce Young will get a chance to show why he was the number-one overall pick. And that is only good news for his weapons, not named Adam Thielen.
Mingo led the team last week in targets (6) and receiving yards (60). That was two receiving yards more than his previous season-high. So, the cash bar is low with potential.
TE, Cade Otton v Carolina Panthers, Buccaneers -6.0, 38.5 o/u
Otton is purely a floor play. The Panthers are pretty against the tight end. They have allowed only 4.9 fantasy points per game to the position and 38.5 average receiving yards.
Otton, however, had had four targets, four receptions, and 45 yards and five targets, four receptions, and 49 yards in his last two games. When Baker Mayfield isn’t looking deep for Mike Evans, he dumps it off to White or Otton.
Otton has a 13.6% target share, is third in routes run (378), and has a 99.0% route percentage (second).
I like the floor Otton brings to the tight-end position.
Trash Plays
I feel the need to reiterate a trash play is a player in a bad matchup who hasn’t excelled in the past three weeks.
QB, Matthew Stafford v Cleveland Browns, Rams -4.5, 38.5 o/u
The Cleveland Browns defense is not to be taken lightly. They are only allowing 163.5 passing yards per game. They have given up an average of 0.9 passing touchdowns per game.
Last week, Stafford poured 229 passing yards, four touchdowns, and one interception against the Arizona Cardinals. It was his first multi-touchdown game in five games. Stafford had 190 yards the week before with one touchdown and one interception.
The Browns have held their last two quarterbacks to under 200 passing yards. Of course, the quarterbacks were Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson.
RB, Joe Mixon @ Jacksonville Jaguars, Jaguars -8.0, 40.5 o/u
This game will be played on Monday Night in prime time without Joe Burrow.
There is no better reason to stack the box against Mixon than having no Burrow. Before the Burrow injury, Mixon was averaging 56.5 yards per carry. Per playerprofiler.com, Mixon is 50th with a stacked front carry rate of 9.2% and 0.4 yards per carry.
WR, Drake London @ New York Jets, Falcons -2.5, 35.5 o/u
Not only are the Jets allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, but in their last three games, the Falcons have only attempted 26.7 passing attempts. They are also only averaging 166.0 passing yards.
Additionally, London runs 78% of his routes out wide on the left side. That is Sauce Gardner’s territory. That’s not good news.
TE, Tyler Conklin v Atlanta Falcons, Falcons -2.5, 35.5 o/u
Trashing Conklin is much more about the quarterback position in the New York Jets. It is not good. The quarterback position in NYC is kinda trash.
“I think things come into our lives to help us get from one place to a better one.”—Ted Lasso
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