So, if you are reading this, did you make it to the playoffs? Or are you (like me in some of my leagues) just going with the Wreck-It Ralph philosophy? Thanks for coming back, and let’s get to it.
Oh, Matthew Stafford, I will never doubt you again. Here is a little lesson that will keep us through this week and the playoff season. The Cleveland Browns are a really good defense in Cleveland. The Browns hold opposing quarterbacks to an average of 85.3 passing yards when playing at home. Opposing quarterbacks light them up for 223.5 passing yards a game while away from home. For the fantasy playoffs, the Browns will be home against Chicago in Week 15, away at Houston in Week 16, and home against the New York Jets championship round. Play accordingly.
Smash Plays
Quarterback Russell Wilson @ Los Angeles Chargers, Chargers -2.5, 43.5 o/u
“You know what the happiest animal on earth is? It’s a goldfish. You know why? It’s got a 10-second memory.”-Ted Lasso
I feel this applies specifically to our trust in Wilson in fantasy football. Last week, Wilson was in an advantageous position. Playing against a Houston Texans team that gave up 364 passing yards and a touchdown to Trevor Lawrence the week before.
But Wilson instead threw three interceptions! Three! Wilson has had seven interceptions all year…three were last week against the Houston Texans. And to make matters worse, he didn’t even get 200 passing yards! Wilson finished last week as QB11 with 18.8 fantasy points.
So, we have to be like a goldfish because this matchup has top-five quarterback potential written all over it.
Statistically speaking, the Chargers are allowing an average of 290.1 passing yards to the quarterback position. It’s true that in the last two weeks, they have held quarterbacks to under 200 yards, but they were (no offense) New England Patriots’ Bailey Zappe and Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson (who, truth be told, didn’t need to do much for the win).
Wilson and the Broncos are clinging to a playoff spot. Their home versus away splits aren’t good. That five-game winning streak they rode into Houston on was 4-1, with four wins in all home games. Truth be told, they should have lost the Buffalo game but for Buffalo’s ineptness.
Wilson has two games over 300 yards, and they were in September. Two games over 200 yards, and the last one was Week 11. For the season, Wilson is QB14.
The Broncos are 30th in passing attempts (28.8) and 19th in rushing attempts (26.3). It doesn’t seem like a smash spot, yet I feel it will be.
Running Back, Chubba Hubbard @ New Orleans Saints, Saints -5.5, 38.5 o/u
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Until two weeks ago, Hubbard was a dud on the fantasy landscape. Then, in Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans, he scored 15.2 fantasy points, and last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he scored 22.4 fantasy points. We can get behind that type of trajectory.
Now he gets the Saints, who have allowed 125.5 rushing yards per game with nine rushing touchdowns.
Hubbard had 25 rushing opportunities last week compared to Miles Sanders’s eight. The backfield belongs to Hubbard. That in itself is enough for a smash spot.
I would be remiss if I didn’t causally mention this is also a SMASH spot for Alvin Kamara.
Wide Receiver, D. J. Moore v Detroit Lions -3.5, 40.5 o/u
This game is a rematch from Week 11, quarterback Justin Fields’s first game back. In that game, Moore saw nine targets. He had seven receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown.
The Lions are allowing receivers 161.6 receiving yards, 12.8 receptions, and 1.2 touchdowns a game. According to Razzball’s slot versus wide, 64% of the fantasy points the Lions give up go to the out wide receiver. Seventy-one percent of Moore’s fantasy points have come from out wide.
In Fields’ last full game before the injury in Week 5, Fields targeted Moore 10 times. The next most targets were tight end Cole Kmet with five. In the Week 11 rematch, Kmet again trailed Moore in targets with four.
We see the trend, we like the trend, we smash the trend.
Tight End, Gerald Everett v Denver Broncos, Chargers -2.5, 43.5 o/u
It is a story as old as time. See Denver play tight end against Denver.
Last week, the Texans’ tight end Brevin Jordan logged three receptions for 64 yards against them. In Week 12, tight end David Njoku led the Cleveland Browns’ receiving corps with six receptions and 59 yards.
Playing against the Broncos is a matchup Kellen Moore and Justin Herbert should be able to exploit if Brandon Staley stays out of the way.
Cash Plays
QB, Justin Fields v Detroit Lions -3.5, 42.5 o/u
You saw this coming, right? Fields’ wide receiver is in a Smash spot, and there has to be a reason. And honestly, Fields and Wilson’s position on Smash/Cash are interchangeable.
Fields rushing upside always makes him a valuable player. In Week 11 against the Lions, he passed for 169 yards and a touchdown while running for 104 yards.
It is also fun to note that while the Lions allow 198.2 passing yards at home, the defense allows an average of 260.5 passing yards when playing away from home.
I like this spot for Fields.
RB, Alexander Mattison @ Las Vegas Raiders, Vikings -3.0, 40.5 o/u
“I feel like we fell out of the lucky tree and hit every branch on the way down, ended up in a pool of cash and Sour Patch Kids.”—Ted Lasso
Playing Mattison is just like that. If you have him in standard, you have missed many branches. Mattison is RB30 in both standard and PPR. In standard, he has had four weeks where he had double-digit fantasy points. He has had six weeks in double-digit fantasy points in PPR, averaging 9.8 per game.
The Raiders and the Vikings are coming off their bye week. The Raiders had that momentary bounce from a change in coaching, which came against the New York Jets and the New York Giants. The week before their bye, they fell back to earth as Kansas City Chiefs Isiah Pacheco rushed for 55 yards and added 34 receiving yards and two touchdowns against them. Pacheco finished with 25.9 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
I am not suggesting that Mattison will reach 25.9 fantasy points this week. But in PPR leagues, 18-plus shouldn’t be out of the question.
WR, Drake London v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Falcons -2.5, 39.5 o/u
Last week, London was nonexistent. He was targeted five times with one reception and eight yards. He also played against Sauce Gardner and the New York Jets stingy secondary.
This week, he gets a reprieve as he goes against the Buccaneers secondary. The Buccaneers are giving up 193 receiving yards and 23.5 fantasy points to the receiving position.
Listen, I have as much faith in Arthur Smith as you do and probably a little less. But London should see a bounce-back game at home against a secondary that allowed Jonathan Mingo and D. J. Chark to combine for 125 receiving yards last week.
TE, Isaiah Likely v Los Angeles Rams, Ravens -7.0, 40.5 o/u
There is no Mark Andrews to stand in his way of production. The Rams allow opposing tight ends an average of 60.5 yards and 8.1 fantasy points per game.
Before their bye week, Likely was second in targets (6) and receptions (4) and led the team in receiving yards (40) against the other LA team.
Trash Plays
“It’s kind of like back in the 80s when ‘bad’ meant ‘good’.”—Ted Lasso
The trash plays are a little like that. These men aren’t bad (necessarily). They are just in a bad matchup. So be wary.
QB, Matthew Stafford v Baltimore Ravens -7.0, 40.5 o/u
Quarterbacks are averaging 12.8 fantasy points against the Ravens. Justin Herbert had 14.4 in Week 12.
I doubted Stafford last week, and he proved me wrong. But I’m staying pat on this one.
RB, Rachaad White @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5, Falcons 39.5 o/u
Here is a semi-interesting stat: no running back has rushed for a touchdown against the Falcons. There have been four rushing touchdowns against them, and they have all come from quarterbacks.
Running backs are averaging 10.7 fantasy points against them.
WR, Nico Collins @ New York Jets, Texans -3.5, 33.5 o/u
Not only is the over/under abysmally low, but you just “don’t tug on Superman’s cap, You don’t spit in the wind, You don’t pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger…” and you don’t play wide receivers against Sauce Gardner and the New York Jets secondary.
TE, Noah Fant v San Francisco -10.5, 46.5 o/u
This game is a rematch from Week 12. Fant and Will Dissly combined for 46 yards on three receptions. Don’t do it.
Thank you for reading this season. It has been my pleasure. Come Sunday
with your start/sit questions on redraft and DFS.
As always, good luck and play nice.
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