It is Week 6, and oh my goodness. So, two teams are on a bye, the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers, which wouldn’t be so devastating for our fantasy fortunes if it wasn’t for the injuries.
The injuries involve obvious smash players, too: Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, James Conner, and Travis Kelce, just to name a few of the injuries of smash players who will make your Week 6 trash.
Now, let’s review my incredibly good, bad, and simply ugly calls from last week.
Oh, Jordan Love, how can you have such a beautiful name and ugly results? Love was my smash suggestion for a quarterback that turned out to be trash last week. The final stats for Love were 182 passing yards on 16 attempts and 30 completions. But the piece de resistance is the zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Love finished as QB24 with 8.0 fantasy points. Oh, yeah, I think that is the very definition of trash.
Dalton Schultz, you have renewed my faith in tight ends. Schultz finished the week as TE5 with 12.5 fantasy points. He smashed it, and that was good.
The bad was definitely Daniel Jones, and it was bad all around. It was bad that I suggested Jones was a cash play. And it was bad that Jones had to endure an offensive line whose entire left side consisted of backups. Jones, once again finding himself running for his life, was sacked six times. He finished the week as QB26 with a neck injury. It was bad for the 1-4 New York Giants and a bad call for our fantasy fortunes. But mostly bad for the Giants and Jones?
Let’s move on, shall we? First, here are some player props you should jump on if you are interested in making money.
Smash Plays
Quarterback, Justin Fields, Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings, Vikings -3.0, 44.5 o/u
So here is the skinny of it all: our best option, Patrick Mahomes, against the porous Denver Broncos defense is playing on Thursday, and this will not get to you in time.
The second-best option, Dak Prescott, plays on Monday night, and my confidence in him is waning. Spoiler alert: he could very well be a cash play.
So, “Welcome to the Party, Pal.” Fields’ reminded us of his capabilities last week. He averaged 5.2 yards per rushing attempt last week. Fields also passed for 282 receiving yards and four passing touchdowns.
The Vikings have given up eight passing touchdowns in five games. They have also allowed 67 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. It is reassuring that 35 of those yards and both touchdowns came from the skills of Jalen Hurts, the only dual-threat quarterback the Vikings have played (until now).
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Running Back, James Cook, Buffalo Bills v New York Giants, Bills -14, 44.5 o/u
This game has everything we love about running backs advantages. The team will be playing at home, hopefully pissed off about being the NFL’s guinea pigs, and they are a two-touchdown favorite.
The Giants have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and conceded 91 receiving yards to the running back position. Cook has not overwhelmed us with his rushing prowess. Last week (in London), he had a total of -4 rushing yards. His fantasy value was salvaged the week prior with his one touchdown on 29 rushing yards.
Luckily, the Giants are the gift that keeps on giving. Last week, De’Von Achane ran for 151 yards, while the week prior, Kenneth Walker rushed for 79 yards, but he also added a touchdown.
Cook is getting the opportunities; he has a 60.9% opportunity share. He runs routes on 53.3% of plays with a 10.8% target share. Maybe Smash is overly optimistic, but considering his ceiling and his opponent, if not now, when?
Wide Receiver, Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers, Cowboys -2, 50.5 o/u
The Chargers are giving up the most fantasy points per game (30.8) and the most receiving yards per game (231.8) to the wide receiver position. Per Razzball’s slot versus wide analysis, 72% of those fantasy points go to the out wide receiver.
So far this season, Gallup has been on the field for 68.12% of the offensive snaps. He is second in targets with 22. Gallup has taken only seven snaps out of the slot.
They move CeeDee Lamb around, but his role in the slot has increased. Last year, he spent 52.7% of his time in the slot compared to 36.1% the year prior. Lamb has taken 146 snaps in the slot in the five games this season.
The statistics say Gallup should reap the rewards, but if you choose Lamb, I’m not mad at you.
Tight End, Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets, Eagles -7, 40.5 o/u
There was a Goedert sighting last week. Goedert had eight receptions, 117 yards, and one touchdown on nine targets. This week, he plays the Jets, who allow the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.2).
In the Jets’ last three weeks, Pharaoh Brown, Noah Gray, and Adam Trautman have all scored a touchdown. That should be Goedert’s floor.
Cash Plays
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers, Cowboys -2, 50.5 o/u
You have been warned. Prescott against the Chargers should be a Smash spot. The Chargers are giving up the most passing yards (329.2) to the quarterback position. They also allow 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, and opposing quarterbacks have averaged 24.2 fantasy points against them.
And then there is Prescott, with his five touchdowns and four interceptions. Prescott hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game this season, nor has he eclipsed 40 passing attempts in a game. Then there are the red zone woes. The Cowboys have had a league-leading 93 plays in the red zone. Yet they rank 28th in red zone offense (36.84%). The Chargers red zone defense allows touchdowns on 50% of the plays inside the 20-yard line.
Prescott should be a Smash play that got demoted to a Cash play that could very well end up Trash.
RB Cash Play
Here’s the thing: your most favorable matchups are against running backs that you should be starting anyway. So, let’s rehash what you already know:
The Carolina Panthers are tied with the Denver Broncos (something no defense should ever want to hear) by allowing the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.6). The Panthers play the Miami Dolphins in Miami and are a -13.5 underdog. This means, yes, you are playing Raheem Mostert.
The Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals are tied with the Denver Broncos (my shocked face) for the most receiving touchdowns to the running back position (4). The Bears play the Vikings, and the Cardinals play the Rams. That leaves you with Alexander Mattison (minus Jefferson) and Kyren Williams.
Mattison has 21 targets, a 10.8% target share, and has run 85 routes. That was with Jefferson on the field.
Williams has seen 24 targets with a 12.4% target share. He ran a league-best for running backs 148 routes. That was before Cooper Kupp returned.
Mattison’s game has a 44.5 predictive total, with the Vikings a three-point road favorite. Williams’ game has a 48.5 predictive total, with the Rams a touchdown home favorite.
And for raw fantasy points per game after the teams mentioned above, you have the Houston Texans giving up the seventh most fantasy points to the running back position (20.3). The Texans play the New Orleans Saints with Alvin Kamara’s 77% snap share, making him the only running back option in New Orleans.
You weren’t seriously thinking of sitting any of these running backs, were you?
WR, Drake London, Atlanta Falcons v Washington Commanders, Atlanta -2.5, 42.5 o/u
I admit it: I gave up on London and suffered for it. Last week in Arthur Smith’s run-first offense, London had nine targets (second on the team to Kyle Pitts’11 targets) for six receptions and 78 yards.
Now, the Falcons will host the Washington Commanders, who have already given up nine touchdowns to the wide receiver position.
When banking on the Falcons’ passing game, you aren’t looking for volume but for the touchdowns.
London only has two touchdowns in five games, but he has three games with his longest reception over 20 yards. The ceiling is there. PSA: did you know Desmond Ridder has never lost a home game? Not in college and (so far) not in the NFL
TE, Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals, Bengals -3.0, 44.5 o/u
I will suggest that Joe Burrow is back, and last week wasn’t an anomaly. In which case, this game has the potential to be a shoot-out.
The Bengals are in a tie with the Los Angeles Rams and the Atlanta Falcons for allowing the second most fantasy points to the tight end position (9.2).
Before the bye week, Fant led the Seahawks in receiving yards (63) with only two receptions and two targets.
Trash Plays
QB, Daniel Jones, New York Giants @Buffalo Bills, Bills -14, 44.5 o/u
The Bills only allow 10.2 average fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. They have allowed four touchdowns and collected eight interceptions. But what is most frightening is their league-leading 21 sacks.
The Buffalo Bills are not good for Jones and his hodgepodge offensive line.
RB, Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns v San Francisco 49ers, 49ers -6.5, 37.5 o/u
The 49ers are only allowing an average of 43.4 rushing yards per game. Ford is averaging 3.72 yards per game. But hold up, that average is boosted by the 6.6 yards per game he achieved against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ford hasn’t averaged more than 2.9 yards per carry in his other three games. And he has an injury designation. This game will prove to be trash for whomever the Browns put in the backfield.
WR, Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Brown, 49ers -6.5, 37.5 o/u
The Browns are good against the run, and they are really good against WR1. They are giving up the least fantasy points (9.0) and the least receiving yards per game (91.2) to the wide receiver position. When they have given up touchdowns in the receiving game, it has been to the tight end (Mark Andrews, two touchdowns) or WR2 (Tee Higgins, one touchdown).
You aren’t sitting, Aiyuk, I understand. Just temper your expectations.
TE, Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans v New Orleans Saints, Saints -1.5, 41.5 o/u
Schultz had a good week last week. Let that memory sustain you. This week, he goes against the Saints’ defense that only gives up 19.8 yards per game to the tight end position. In five weeks, only one tight end (Cade Otton) has scored a touchdown on them.
“I wish I could say something classy and inspirational, but that just wouldn’t be our style. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory…lasts forever.”—Shane Falco, The Replacements
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