It is Week 7. How are you doing? The scoring has been historically low, and the injuries are historically high? Or does it just feel like it? Every week, another major cog in the fantasy world goes down with an injury. Don’t get me wrong, I completely understand that this is their livelihood we are talking about…but it’s my fantasy team.
Anyway, enough moping, let’s get this started.
Last week, my trash calls were cash. Dalton Schultz against the New Orleans Saints, with his 61 yards and a touchdown, was definitely not trash. Schultz finished the week as TE2 in standard leagues. And Jerome Ford, whom I considered an underperformer, just performed against the San Francisco 49ers, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Ford finished as RB21 in standard (Kareem Hunt finished as RB8).
And then my smash plays were disrupted by James Cook and his 7.1 fantasy points against the New York Giants! Cook smashed it as RB27 in standard leagues with his 14 carries and 71 yards. It smashed all my dreams and hopes, as did Dallas Goedert against the New York Jets. Goedert finished as TE15 with 4.2 fantasy points.
And for a second, can we discuss the bona-fide ugly that was Michael Gallup? Gallup led the Dallas Cowboys in targets. He had 10 targets…10! Do you want to know how many receptions and yards he manifested his 10 targets into…that would be three receptions for 24 yards. I can’t. Gallup finished as WR71 in standard and WR66 in PPR. All I can do is give you my sincere apologies. And turn you on to some great prop picks for this week.
Smash Plays
Quarterback Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks -8.0 v Arizona Cardinals, 46.5 o/u
The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Smith threw for 323 yards with two interceptions and zero touchdowns. He rushed for 20 yards on four carries.
The Smith we have seen has not been the Smith promised. Smith sits as QB23, having only one week with a fantasy score in the 20s. He has three weeks where he has scored less than 13.0 fantasy points.
So why the reason for this giddy optimism?
Well, “You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of Inevitability!” -Agent Smith
The Seahawks will host the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday. The Cardinals are giving up the sixth-most passing yards (251.4) and have allowed eight passing touchdowns. In their last three games, the Cardinals have given up 13.2 fantasy points to Matthew Stafford, 24.4 fantasy points to Joe Burrow, and 21.3 fantasy points to Dak Prescott.
Week 7 begins Smith’s road back into our good fantasy graces.
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WR, Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders -3 @ Chicago Bears, 40.5 o/u
We can just file this under the “squeaky wheel theory.”
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Davante Adams wants more targets: That’s my purpose for being here. <a href=”https://t.co/vivOPRcv03″>https://t.co/vivOPRcv03</a></p>— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) <a href=”https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/1714819485096460420?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>October 19, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
When the best player on your team states that he needs more targets, and the head coach admits he needs to design plays to get him more targets, then more targets it is.
The Chicago Bears allow 17.8 targets, 11.8 receptions, 159.8 receiving yards, and 21.3 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
Adams sits as WR11 in standard leagues. Weighed down by his last two outings, where he amassed 4.5 and 2.9 fantasy points, he should smash it this week regardless of who is under center for the Raiders.
Embed from Getty ImagesRB, Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers -1.5 @ Denver Broncos, 44.5 o/u
The last time we saw Jones playing minutes on a football field was September 28. In that game, Jones had five carries for 18 yards. His longest run was a nine-yard gallop. That is not exactly the quality touches we seek in a running back.
But the Packers are coming off their bye week and get to travel to the mile-high city where everyone is welcome.
The Broncos are allowing the most rushing yards per game, 172.3. They have relinquished eight rushing touchdowns. And they have also allowed running backs 53.5 receiving yards.
I honestly don’t know what’s happening in Denver. I do know what should happen, and that is Mr. Jones having himself a day.
TE, Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams, Rams -3, 42.5 o/u
Freiermuth looks ready to go for Week 7. And it is just in time. The Steelers play the Rams this Sunday. The Rams have given up a touchdown to Mo Alie-Cox on one play for 35 yards and allowed Goedert to rack up 117 yards and a touchdown. A tight end has scored a touchdown against the Rams in two of their last three games.
Cash Plays
QB, Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos v Green Bay Packers, Packers -1.5, 44.5 o/u
It was absolute garbage the last time we saw Wilson on the football field. He had 95 total passing yards, two interceptions, and a touchdown. It can’t continue, right?
Before Week 6, Wilson was QB9 in fantasy football. Wilson had accumulated 15.2, 26.9, 15.2, 22.2, and 18.7 fantasy points before blowing it up with 8.9 on Thursday night against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Packers are pretty decent against quarterbacks. They are giving up 215 passing yards and 24.8 rushing yards. Quarterbacks have averaged 15.8 fantasy points against them.
And honestly, there is no rational reason to think that Wilson can regain some semblance of his pre-sucking Wilson form. And this could just as easily be a trash play. But I believe that little in this season has made sense, and Wilson balling out would be the norm in this abnormal season.
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 v Las Angeles Chargers, 48.5 o/u
The Chargers allow the second most points per game to the out wide receiver (30.4). Last week, I erroneously believed it would be Gallup. As it turns out, 10 targets weren’t enough to get him to the smash point. But seven targets got Cee Dee Lamb seven receptions and 117 yards (see Michael, that’s how it’s done)!
Rice has commanded a 12.7% target share a 32.2% target rate, and last week he ran 22 routes (up from 10 the week prior). He was also second in targets behind Travis Kelce.
Rice is becoming the most efficient receiver, not named Kelce, for the Chiefs. He should remain the second read of Patrick Mahomes, which in this game will get him cash status.
RB, Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders -3.0 @ New York Giants, 39.5 o/u
It is my mantra that divisional rivalries are hard to predict. The teams know each other, there is the added incentive of divisional foe, and it is usually a battle royale in the NFC East.
In these first six games, the New York Giants haven’t lived up to the promise they left on the field last season. They are 1-5, and their offensive line is a joke.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Giants most recently held the Buffalo Bills to 20 points and their running back to under 100 yards with no touchdowns. However, before that, Miami Dolphins’ De’Von Achane ran for 151 yards against them, and Kenneth Walker managed 79 rushing yards and a touchdown.
Robinson’s last three games have been pretty bad. In three games, he hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing cumulative.
The question is, was last week the Giants defense figuring it out? Or was it just an aberration? We will find out as the Giants have given up nine touchdowns to running backs, and Robinson does have 16 red zone touches.
TE, Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks, Seahawks -8.0, 46.5 o/u
There are six teams on a bye this week. And I think the tight-end pool is murky when all teams are suiting up.
Ertz is a volume play. He has a safe floor of about six fantasy points, and the Seahawks allow a 103.4 passer rating on targets to tight ends.
I don’t know what else to tell you. Kyle Pitts is back on the radar; George Kittle never left your radar, and Logan Thomas is now healthy.
Trash Plays
QB, Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts v Cleveland Browns, Browns -2, 39.5 o/u
Embed from Getty ImagesI hesitate to say trash Minshew because he is the very definition of ‘on any given Sunday.’ However, last week, he had three ugly interceptions and a fumble. This week, he has to go against the Browns’ defense, and in case you haven’t heard, they are pretty good.
WR, Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers -1.5 @ Denver Broncos, 44.5 o/u
While the Broncos are getting absolutely destroyed by the out receiver, they are uncharacteristically stingy to slot receivers. According to Razzball slot v wide statistics, the Broncos allow the fourth-fewest points per game to the slot receiver (4.8). So go ahead and play Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson. Just keep Reed in check.
RB, Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings v San Francisco 49ers, 49ers -7, 44.5 o/u
The Vikings are averaging 75.0 rushing yards per game. That is the third-fewest amount. Mattison is averaging 3.9 rushing yards per attempt. He is averaging 53.0 yards per game.
The 49ers are giving up 64.2 rushing yards per game and have only allowed three rushing touchdowns. Before Hunt’s last week, they allowed Kyren Williams in Week 2 and Matt Breida in Week 3.
TE, Hunter Henry, New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills, Bills -8.5, 41.5 o/u
Until further notice, you should probably avoid all Patriots players. I realize the draft capital you put into Rhamondre Stevenson and six teams on a bye will make this impossible. Temper your expectations.
“Well, John wasn’t exactly ‘The Boogeyman’. He was the one you sent to kill the f***ing Boogeyman.”—John Wick (2014)
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