Week 14 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses, and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include the Thursday games or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Five teams play Home and Dome during the Week 14 Sunday slate:
Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans vs Denver Broncos
New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $31
Kirk Cousins MIN vs DET
We begin with a QB in a Home and Dome matchup. Kirk Cousins has had a great 2019, but especially in Minnesota. His 2nd and 3rd best fantasy performances this season came at home. His best game? In Detroit when Cousins scored 29.14 fantasy points. And it’s not just the Vikings QB that has done well against the Lions. They have surrendered the 9th most fantasy points to the position this season. Look for Cousins to continue the productive ways that have allowed him to be the QB 9 overall so far in 2019. The Vikings also have the highest implied total of the week at 27.75 points.
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Aaron Rodgers GB vs WAS
Just behind Minnesota is the Packers in terms of the implied total as they are projected at 27,25 points. Aaron Rodgers has had a very polarising season. He has produced 4 games of over 25 fantasy points in 2019. However, in 7 contests this season, Rodgers has failed to reach even 15 fantasy points. Part of that has been the dominance of the run game in certain matchups. However, last week, in snowy New York conditions the Packers could easily have turned t the run game. Instead, Rodgers took advantage of the weak secondary and threw over 30 pass attempts. I expect a similar result this week against the Washington defense that has given up the 11th most fantasy points to QBs. The Packers also have the 2nd highest
RB – $20
Austin Ekeler LAC @ JAX
Even with Melvin Gordon‘s return, Austin Ekeler is just as involved in the offense. Entering week 14, Ekeler has the 3rd most targets and 2nd most receptions among all RBs in the NFL. His productive ways should continue as the Jaguars have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the position. That means that both Ekeler and Gordon should be viable plays. I prefer Ekeler because he comes in at $3 cheaper and that can make all the difference in getting the optimal lineup.
Todd Gurley vs SEA
There were certainly some early-season concerns surrounding Todd Gurley. He was losing valuable Red Zone touches and targets to his teammate. However, fast forward to recent weeks and Gurley’s workload in both regards has improved. He is coming off of a week where he led the NFL in Red Zone carries. As those valuable touches continue to grow, look for Gurley’s production to rise as well.
WR – $27
Davante Adams GB vs WAS
By recommending Rodgers, it is only natural that his top target, Davante Adams should also find success. I recommended Adams last week in this section and that paid off as found the end zone twice. After not scoring a TD until week 12, Adams has 3 in the last 2 games. It would not surprise at all to see Adams find the end zone at least once in week 14. What is a bit shocking is that Adams’ price dropped by $4 after that performance. The target share alone should be enough to sustain production as Adams has received double-digit targets in 5 straight games.
Tyler Lockett SEA @ LAR
On the contrary of Adams, Tyler Lockett is actually in the middle of a 3-game cold streak. During that time, he has only caught 4 passes combined. However, look for Lockett to bounce back. While the Rams have only allowed the 19th most fantasy points to WRs, they are vulnerable to slot receivers. 5 of the 11 receiving TD that they have surrendered went to slot receivers, which includes Lockett back in week 5. Lockett in only one month removed from an 18 target, 33.7 fantasy point performance, so we know that he is certainly capable of monster production.
TE – $16
Jacob Hollister SEA @ LAR
I’m going right back to this Seahawks-Rams matchup. If Tyler Lockett is too expensive for you, then TE Jacob Hollister is a great pivot that allows access to this match. Hollister has led Seattle in targets during 2 of the last 3 games. With several top tier TEs in tough matchups, Hollister could potentially be among the best fantasy producers at the position in week 14.
Vance McDonald PIT @ ARI
When looking at favorable matchups for TEs, we begin with the Cardinals. They have surrendered the most fantasy points to the position in 2019. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Arizona is the only team that has given up more than 1 TD per game to TEs. Vance McDonald‘s target share has diminished with only 4 receptions combined over the last 2 weeks. However, in each of 3 games immediately preceding those contests, McDonald saw 7 targets. While the QB situation is not the greatest, McDonald is in the perfect price range for his position.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Alexander Mattison MIN vs DET $17
There is potential for a missive Alexander Mattison workload in week 14. Dalvin Cook reaggravated an injury last game, something that he originally suffered the week prior. Even with Cook playing this week, Mattison is still a solid option. The best scenario all season for Mattison has been Minnesota getting such a big lead, that they rest Cook and give his workload to Mattison. Since the Vikings are favored by 12.5, this situation is not only possible but rather likely.
WR – Deebo Samuel SF @ NO $16
It’s a road and dome game on tap for Deebo Samuel and the 49ers in week 14. That means that the conditions should be pristine for passing performances, unlike last week in the rain-soaked game in San Francisco. Samuel still managed to score a TD and double-digit fantasy performance. His season-best in receiving yards (134) came in another indoor contest so he can certainly thrive in that environment. The Saints have also allowed the 9th most fantasy points to WRs so it is a favorable matchup for Samuel.
WR – Brandin Cooks LAR vs SEA $13
This one will require a lead of faith. In 2 games since returning from injury, Brandin Cooks has a combined 4 receptions for 56 yards. That has caused his Yahoo price to drop to a season-low $13. As a deep threat, Cooks runs the risk of getting you almost nothing in terms of fantasy points. However, all he needs is one big play to make him a worthy return on investment. Going against a middle of the pack Seahawks defense does make that possible. Either way, the risk is minimal and can allow some flexibility in roster creation.
Dominant Defenses
Green Bay Packers vs WAS $12
You can get quite a bargain for fantasy defenses at $12. On other sites, the Packers unit is priced as the most expensive in week 14. The reason, a matchup with a rookie QB. Dwayne Haskins has been committing turnovers this season. While he did have a decent performance last week against the Panthers pass-rush, Haskins took advantage of their weaker secondary. That will not be the case playing Green Bay who has excellent cornerback in the secondary. Even if Kevin King is absent, this defense is rock solid against the pass. Plus Washington has surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to defenses. And unless Haskins is performing miracles in the pocket, the Packers pass-rush will likely get to the QB behind the 30th ranked offensive line in adjusted sack yards.
Houston Texans vs DEN $12
In my opinion, there is no reason to pay more than $12 for any defense. In addition to Green Bay, we have the Texans at that price point. Just like the former, Houston will also be facing a rookie QB. Only in the case of Drew Lock, this will be his 2nd career start. While he got the win last week, Lock still threw an INT. And while the Broncos offensive line is slightly better than Washington’s unit, they are still ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate. Just like the Packers, Houston is a bargain price with a great matchup
Super Stacks
Panthers @ Falcons
QB – Kyle Allen CAR $26
RB – Christian McCaffrey CAR $44
RB – Devonta Freeman ATL $20
The primary focus of this stack is on the RBs. For starters, Christian McCaffrey is the most expensive player on the slate by $6. Although from fantasy points per game perspective, McCaffrey is second in the league behind only Lamar Jackson. There have been only 3 games this season where the RB has failed to reach 20 fantasy points, and in one of those, he still managed 19.7. McCaffrey has been as consistent as they come and is always involved in the passing game. Playing close to 100% of the snaps McCaffrey never gets fazed out.
As for Devonta Freeman, it has not been a banner year. Injuries held him out of several games, but he has nonetheless been disappointing most weeks that he plays. Early in 2019, he lost the goal-line duties to Ito Smith. Now that the later is out for the year, Freeman can regain that role. One element that has remained for the Falcons’ RB is his involvement in the passing game. Freeman has received 3 targets in every game during 2019. Normally RB/RB stacks from opposite sides of the matchup can be risky, the fact that both are consistently targets makes it a viable play. In addition, Freeman is also at the preferred price point for RBs.
As for a QB, the options on either side of the matchup are fine. I would go with Kyle Allen as Matt Ryan is above the preferred price point for his position. This is an indoor game so passing conditions should be prime. Look for Allen to look for McCaffrey (among others) often. This game also has the 2nd highest combined over/under for the week at 48.5 points, so there should be points put up.
Colts @ Buccaneers
QB – Jacoby Brissett IND $27
WR – Chris Godwin TB $32 WRÂ Â ORÂ Â Mike Evans TB $31
WR – Zach Pascal IND $16
TE – Jack Doyle IND $20
It’s not quite as high of a projected total as the Panthers-Falcons contest, but the Colts-Buccaneers have a combined over/under of 47, the 4th highest on the slate. Just like that previously mentioned match, I want the less expensive QB. Jacoby Brissett began the season red-hot with multiple TD passes throw in 5 of his first 6 games. Since then. he has cooled down, but this is a matchup that he can exploit. Tampa Bay has given up the 4th most fantasy points to QBs this season. Look for Brissett to get back on track.
Both defenses are great against the run. Therefore, it’s all about the pass-catchers in this contest. You can pick which Buccaneers WR to target as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are practically the same price. Both have had monster weeks mixed in with some disappointing performances.
On the Colts side, I like going after either Zach Pascal at WR or Jack Doyle at TE. With T.Y. Hilton out, both players saw double-digit targets last week. Since Hilton will also be inactive in week 14, it stands to reason that both Doyle and Pascal can succeed against this defense. Tampa Bay has surrendered the most fantasy points to WRs and the 3rd most to TEs. This will simply come down to lineup construction and positional preference in this price range.
Other Stacks: Packers, Seahawks, Rams
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