It’s week 4 of the NFL season and that means yet another chance to win playing Daily Fantasy Sports. Yahoo’s DFS platform is on the rise in popularity, so now is the time to join.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. There are five teams that play Home and Dome in week 4:
Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers
Indianapolis Colts vs Oakland Raiders
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price points to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $28
Jared Goff LAR vs TB
The Rams are currently one of only 3 teams to have an implied point total over 27 for week 3. Los Angeles’ implied total of 29.25, is tied with the Chargers and only 1 point1 behind the league-leading Chiefs. However, unlike those teams whose QBs are both among the top 3 most expensive at the position, Jared Goff actually comes in at a value. Part of this is his disappointing performance from last week where he only scored 10. This game also has the chance of ending in a shootout as it is tied for the 2nd highest combined over/under of the week at 49.5.
Kyler Murray ARI vs SEA
The rookie Kyler Murray was supposed to take the NFL by storm with his rushing ability. While he was quiet in that regard during the first 2 weeks of the season, Murray ran for 69 yards (on 8 carries) in week 3. The Seahawks have not yet faced a mobile QB like Murray in this 2019 campaign. Even if they can adjust to Murray’s running style, this defense did allow Andy Dalton to achieve a career-high in passing yards during week 1. And that was in Seattle. This particular game is in Arizona which gives Murray a Home and Dome contest in which he should be able to produce both on the ground and threw the air.
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RB – $16-$15
This week, it was difficult to find one price point where I really liked multiple RBs. So instead, I selected 2 RBs who are separated by only $1. DVOA or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is a metric that is used to objectively evaluate team defensive performances in a quantifiable manner. Both of these RBs, face defenses who rank in the bottom 1/3 of the league for run DVOA.
Carlos Hyde HOU vs CAR $16
The Panthers defense has allowed 4 TDs to RBs through 3 weeks. This boasts well for Carlos Hyde who has received 5 of the Texans’ 7 red-zone carries through 3 weeks. Considering that the Panthers DVOA against the pass is the 6th best in the league right now, the best game plan for Houston appears to be run the football. In their week 2 victory over the Jaguars, Hyde was on the field for 61% of the offensive snaps. If the Texans can get out to an early lead, look for Hyde’s playing time to increase.
Adrian Peterson WAS @ NYG $15
The Giants defense has allowed exactly 1 TD per game to RBs in 2019. In fact, the biggest obstacle for Adrian Peterson to get into the end zone this week may be his own teammates. Unlike Hyde, Peterson does not even have half of his team’s red zone carries (5 of 11). He does, however, lead Washington in that regard. The problem for Washinton, especially last week, was that their opponents have gotten out to big leads forcing them to throw more from behind. Going against a QB making his 2nd career start, this could be the game that Peterson has been waiting for as Washington will look to control the clock.
WR – $17
Marvin Jones DET vs KC
The Chiefs-Lions game not only has the highest combined over/under of the week but at 54.5 points, it’s the largest line of the 2019 season. This game will likely turn into a shootout and it would be advantageous for DFS players to get exposure on both sides. Starting with the Lions, there are several good options but Marvin Jones may be the best play. After receiving a season-high 9 targets last week, Jone appears to be on the rise. The game scripts in weeks 1 and 2 demanded that the Lions play a more run-oriented style. However, in week 3, it was a higher scoring affair that necessitated Jones’ heavy involvement. Against Kansas City, I would expect the same thing. Also, a Home and Dome game certainly helps the shootout narrative. The only thing that could prevent a big week is Matthew Stafford‘s availability.
Demarcus Robinson KC @ DET
On the other side of the Chiefs-Lions game, we find another great WR play at $17. It was not Kansas City’s intention to make Demarcus Robinson a focal part of the offense, but injuries have forced things to play out that way. Robinson played in 95% and 91% of the team’s offensive snaps in weeks 2 and 3 respectively. He has also scored 3 TDs over the last 2 games and appears poised to keep the streak going. The Chiefs have an implied total of 30.25 points, which is tied for the highest in the entire week 3 slate. Robinson offers a great chance to invest in this offense at a bargain price.
TE – $18
Will Dissly SEA @ ARI
There is a road map to success in DFS, specifically at the TE position, target the Cardinals opponents. Arizona has allowed the most fantasy points to the position so far in 2019. In fact, the 25.43 points per game average that they have allowed to TEs is close to twice as much as the next highest team at 14.83 points per game. There are other elements working in Will Dissly‘s favor. For starters, the Seahawks just traded away Dissly’s only real competition for TE playing time so look for him to increase upon his 55% snap share from last week. Next, Seattle has an implied point total of 27, the 4th best-projected total of the week. Look for Dissly, who leads the Seahawks in red-zone targets, to have maybe his most productive outing so far this season. It also does not hurt that is an indoor game.
Darren Waller OAK @ IND
In total team defense, the Colts rank 25th in DVOA, indicating that their unit is one of the worst, at least that is how they are playing. Specifically, toward TEs, Indianapolis has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to that position in 2019. That boasts well for Darren Waller who has started to become the focal point of the Raiders passing attack. In 2 of the 3 games this year, Waller led Oakland in targets, including 14 last week. Once again, this is a Dome game, and that is ideal.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Wayne Gallman NYG vs WAS $10
Yahoo appears to be uncertain as to how the Giants RB workload will be split. They have Wayne Gallman listed at the minimum price of $10, which makes him a bargain considering that he will likely get most of the carries. There are several situations surrounding this game that favor Gallman’s production. First, the Giants are home favorites, which is useful for an RB. The best scenario for Gallman is for New York to take an early lead and Vegas’ odds seem to indicate that that is likely. Furthermore, the Giants are actually tied for the 5th highest implied total of the week at 26 points.
WR – Colts IND vs OAK $12-$10
Last week, playing time for the Colts was split pretty evenly between their receivers. Of those that will likely play in week 4, Deon Cain was on the field for 56% of the offensive snaps. Behind him was Parris Campbell with 45%, Zach Pascal at 44% and then Chester Rogers with 41%. Those percentages are all likely to go up with the expected absence of T.Y. Hilton, but which player gets the biggest bump is still a question. It will likely be a TD that separates these WRs. So far, among this group, only Campbell ($12) and Pascal ($11) have received red-zone targets in 2019 with 2 apiece. That may explain why they are (slightly) more expensive than Cain and Rodgers who are both the minimum $10. Personally, I’d go with Pascall whose 26.5 yards per reception, is indicative of a big play ability which can really make a difference for a bargain play.
Dominant Defenses
Both of the defenses that I am selecting are road teams on the cheaper end. These are probably best used as GPP or Tournament plays, were picking against the grain can be advantageous.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ DEN $13
The Broncos offensive line has struggled at times this season. In week 4 they face a tough test in the form of the Jaguars. There are several defenses that are priced at $13. Of all those teams, Jacksonville has the opponent who has given up the most fantasy points the opposing defenses and also owns the lowest-ranked offensive DVOA. While Denver is not the ideal matchup for a fantasy defense, they are certainly among the better options for picking an opponent. And with the Jaguars cheap price, it can really help your lineup.
Tennessee Titans @ ATL $12
While on the surface, the Falcons may appear to be a difficult matchup. However, they have actually given up the 8th most fantasy points to defenses so far in 2019. The Atlanta offensive line has struggled at times to protect Matt Ryan which has led to 6 INTs from the QB through 3 games. The Titans have the pass rush to make the Falcons suffer, even at home where the offense is typically stout.
Super Stack
Chargers @ Dolphins
RB – Austin Ekeler LAC $31
WR – Keenan Allen LAC $33
WR – Preston Williams MIA $14
The Chargers have the 3rd highest implied total of the week at 29 points. Even with the injuries to certain key players on the offense, the implied total only dropped by 1 point. The good news is that it should create even more volume for Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. After 3 weeks, Allen is the #1 ranked WR and Ekeler is the #3 ranked RB in Yahoo scoring. Against this Dolphins defense, that trend should continue. I especially like the fact that you have to pay top dollar (even with an increase) to get either. And unlike their QB, neither is priced as a top 3 option this week.
On the Miami side, there is only one player that interests me and that is Preston Williams. While the Dolphins have not been in the red zone often, Williams is the primary weapon there. The team has thrown 7 red zone passing attempts in 2019, and 5 of them have gone towards Williams. If the Dolphins can somehow score a TD, it will likely be Williams who succeeds. I especially like his chances if Casey Hayward is ruled out. As for now, the CB is questionable.
Other Stacks: Chiefs @ Lions, Buccaneers @ Rams
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