I’m not sure if you have heard, but there are six teams on a bye this week. The Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers represent the teams you won’t be seeing this week in your fantasy football rosters.
So here are the teams you will see and their fantasy football implications.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 57.5 o/u, Chiefs 5.5 favorite
Philosophically speaking, with an over/under of 57.5, is there a player you are willing not to start, except for the defenses, of course.
So let’s go over some stats and prop bets for this game.
- Per Football Outsiders, the Chiefs defense rate as worst in DVOA, and the Titans defense rank 26th
- Chiefs defense is allowing 5.2 YPC, and second-most rushing touchdowns (9)
SIT: Chiefs Defense/Titans Defense
Prop Bets: CeasarSportsbook.com Patrick Mahomes under 325.5 passing yards -115; under 2.5 passing touchdowns +120 over 2.5 -149
Derrick Henry rushing yards under 126.5 -115 over 126.5 -115; over 17.5 receiving yards +120, under 17.5 receiving yards
-110
DETROIT LIONS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS, 50.5 o/u, Rams 15 favorite
START: TJ Hockenson, Tight End, Lions
Hockenson leads the team in targets in Week 6 with 11. Hockenson finished the game with eight receptions and 74 yards while having 28.2% of the target share.
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The Rams are giving up the 10th most receiving yards to the tight end (364).
Hockenson is listed on the injury report, so keep an eye on his status.
SIT: Tyler Higbee, Tight End, Rams
There is always that chance that Higbee finds the end zone and saves the fantasy day. But he has had nine red-zone targets and has only found the end zone twice. Also, not since Week 1 has he had over 40 receiving yards.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 49.5 o/u, Raiders 3 favorite
START: Dallas Goedert, Tight End, Eagles
There is no more Zach Ertz in Philadelphia. In an offense that passes the ball 62.6% of the time, Goedert is on the field for a 64.2% snap share and is averaging 14.4 yards per reception.
The Raiders are giving up the sixth-most fantasy PPR points to tight ends, including four touchdowns.
SIT: Miles Sanders, Running Back, Eagles
I know two players from the same team…the shame! However, Sanders has had 29 carries over the last four games, and the Eagles are only running the ball on 37.39% of their offensive plays.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts leads the Eagles in rushing with 300 rushing yards. Until the Eagles decide what to do with Sanders, keep him on the bench.
WFT @ GREEN BAY PACKERS, 48.5 o/u, Packers 7.5 favorite
START: Ricky Seals-Jones, Tight End, WFT
Seals-Jones has been on the field for 99% of the offensive snaps. He has had 15 targets, nine receptions, 99 yards, and a touchdown over the last two weeks.
The Packers have only allowed one tight end to get a touchdown (Hockenson Week 2), so what we are counting on here is the opportunity and the fact the WFT will have to throw the ball a’ plenty to stay in the game.
SIT: Robert Tonyan, Tight End, Packers
The WFT has also only given up one touchdown to the tight end position.
Tonyan has less productivity than Seals-Jones. Tonyan is on the field for 61% of the offensive plays but has never had over 10 receiving yards in a game. He has four red-zone looks and only one touchdown.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, 47.5 o/u, Falcons 2.5 favorite
START: Cordarrelle Patterson, Running Back, Falcons
There really is little to explain here. Patterson has 31 targets, 25 receptions, 295 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He also has 41 rushing attempts, 173 rushing yards, averaging 4.22 yards/attempt, and one rushing touchdown.
The Dolphins are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position, and they are also giving the ninth-most receiving yards to the running back position.
SIT: Myles Gaskin, Running Back, Dolphins
Last week Gaskin fumbled early and was relegated to 36% of the offensive snaps. In his last three games, he has two rushing attempts, three yards, five rushing attempts for 25 yards, and last week’s abysmal five rushing attempts for nine yards.
Two weeks ago, against Tampa Bay, he managed 10 receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown, but that is his best production this season.
The Dolphins are only averaging 71.5 rushing yards per game.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, 47.5 o/u, Cardinals 17.5 favorite
START: James Conner, Running Back, Cardinals
Last week Conner out-snapped Chase Edmonds (41-28) for the first time this season. Probably not a trend, but just worth mentioning.
With Edmonds injured and the Cardinals a 17.5 favorite, and Texans giving up 22 average fantasy points per game to the running back position and six rushing touchdowns, Conner will pad his stats.
SIT: David Johnson, Running Back, Texans
This is really sit any Texans running back. Johnson leads the trio in targets, so he would be the one you will most likely look towards. But his 2.3 average receptions per game isn’t really going to help you out here.
CHICAGO BEARS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, 47 o/u, Buccaneers 12.5 favorite
START: Darnell Mooney, Wide Receiver, Bears
The Buccaneers give the fourth-most fantasy points (24) and seven touchdowns to the wide receiver position. Mooney has out-targeted Allen Robinson 20-15.
Prop Bet for Mooney: receptions made BetMGM under 4.5 -139, over 4.5 +105 (go with over)
SIT: Ronald Jones, Running Back, Buccaneers
The head coach Bruce Arians have stated that Jones would not be traded makes me think that Jones might just be the play here.
I know I said sit, but just beware. Leonard Fournette has out-carried Jones in the red zone 19-5. That’s a huge margin. But again, the Bucs should be well ahead, and I am thinking stats say sit, but Arians coach-speak says Jones just might be a crafty play in DFS.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, 46.5 o/u, Ravens 6.5 favorite
START: Tyler Boyd, Wide Receiver, Bengals
Boyd has been the odd-man-out. But this could change this week as he battles Tavon Young. It will be imperative that Joe Burrow get the ball out quickly to counteract the Ravens’ blitzes. Enter Boyd.
Boyd’s career against the Ravens includes 37 receptions for 480 yards and two touchdowns.
SIT: Rashad Bateman, Wide Receiver, Ravens
Last week Bateman tied for second on the team in targets with six, and he only managed four receptions and 29 yards. That was without Sammy Watkins on the field, and Watkins will be back this week, relegating Bateman further down the food chain.
Also, the Bengals have the eighth-best pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders.
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN FRANCISCO NINERS, 42.5 o/u, Niners 4 favorite
START: Ross Dwelley, Tight End, Niners
I know, right…but here we are. George Kittle is out on IR. The Colts have given up 46 targets and four touchdowns to the tight end position, and they are also allowing tight ends to average 9.8 fantasy points per game, seventh-most this season.
SIT: Mo Alie-Cox, Tight End, Colts
Last week Alie-Cox had three targets, one reception, 28 yards, and a touchdown against the Houston Texans defense. This week he goes against a Niners defense that has surrendered one touchdown on 21 targets to the tight end, and they are also only giving up an average of four fantasy points to the position.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS, 43 o/u, Panthers 3 favorite
START: SAM DARNOLD, QUARTERBACK, PANTHERS
This is less about Darnold and more about the Giants’ defense. A defense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. The Giants have also surrendered 14 passing touchdowns, second-most in the NFL.
I know head coach Matt Rhule has proclaimed from the mountain tops his intention to run the ball more…okay. I believe he also said Christian McCaffrey was “doing good” right before he put him on IR.
SIT: Devontae Booker, Running Back, Giants
It isn’t just that Booker hasn’t had over 42 rushing yards. Or that he only had one rushing touchdown. Running backs have only scored twice against the Panthers, and those two backs were Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 42.5 o/u, Patriots 7 favorite
This game is a rematch from Week 2.
START: Damien Harris, Running Back, Patriots
The Jets have given up the ninth-most rushing yards over the last three games (135).
Harris is tied for seventh in the league in missed tackles (23), and in Week 2, he ran for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. Expect a little more this time around.
SIT: Zach Wilson, Quarterback, Jets
He has gotten better. But it is still a rookie quarterback against Bill Belichick.
Week 2, Wilson’s stats were 19-of-33 for 210 yards and four interceptions. Maybe he gets a passing touchdown this time?
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 42.5 o/u, Saints 4.5 favorite Monday Night Football
START: Jameis Winston, Quarterback, Saints
Winston has seen a systematic increase in his passing yards, culminating in his 279 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception game in Week 5.
The Seahawks are giving up fifth-most passing yards a game (292.3) and an average of 1.7 passing touchdowns per game.
SIT: Geno Smith, Quarterback, Seahawks
I mean, if the Seahawks are flirting with other quarterbacks, why would you trust Smith? Besides, the Saints are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position (13.8) and have only allowed five touchdowns while hauling in nine interceptions.
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