The 2016 Daytona 500 was a season opener after the hearts of almost every NASCAR fanatic in the country.
From the roar of Gerard Butler that precipitated the green flag, to the very final seconds in which Denny Hamlin (#11) edged Martin Truex Jr (#78) by a fraction of an inch, last week’s event kept even the most knowledgeable of pundits guessing.
Although the Daytona 500 was rich in blockbuster excitement, some elements of the race did prove disappointing for neutrals, and ultimately the victory of Denny Hamlin at his strongest track merely represented the continuation of a long term trend. Meanwhile, those legacy lovers anticipating a strong race from polesitter Chase Elliott (#24) were left sorely wanting, with the youngster crashing out at an early stage.
Beyond the final classification however, there were a number of notable performances from less-fancied drivers, and this edition of the Atlanta spring event comes with a low-downforce aero package. As such, top speeds of up to 200mph are expected in Sunday’s race.
Ultimately, control and composure will be the order of the day, and a quick look at the consistency of certain drivers in 2015 is the biggest clue to cracking this weekend’s conundrum.
GROUP A
STARTER – Kevin Harvick
For such consistency, look no further than Kevin Harvick (#4), who finished second in last season’s corresponding event, and seldom faltered on the run of form that took him all the way to Sprint Cup contention at Homestead Miami.
Under the management of Stewart-Haas, Harvick has generally run well in Atlanta. In addition to the aforementioned podium finish of March 2015, Harvick finished a disappointing 19th at the circuit in fall 2014, but it is worth noting that he led for the majority of that race.
RESERVES – Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr
Johnson’s (#48) has similar strengths to his long term rival, making the reigning event winner an equally viable option to start in Group A. However, confidence (as well as composure) will be the order of the day, and Johnson’s may well be lacking after finishing 16th in Daytona, and that is the deciding factor which places him in the reserve list behind Harvick.
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By virtue of a third place finish in the 2015 race, Dale Earnhardt Jr has featured in a vast majority of fantasy teams, but again his confidence will be on the wane, having fared worse yet than Johnson in Daytona with a 36th place finish.
GROUP B
STARTERS – Martin Truex Jr & Carl Edwards
Martin Truex Jr missed Daytona’s victory lane by a hair’s breadth, proving that his first season with Furniture Row was far from a fluke. Yet more impressive was the New Jerseyite’s surge from the very back of the grid after a rotten qualifier made him an apparent lost cause.
Meanwhile, Carl Edwards has emerged somewhat from the shadows after a fifth place finish at Daytona. Saving him for the summer races may be a wise move, but this is presently too crucial an opportunity to capitalize on what could be a race with a stratospheric top speed for Joe Gibbs drivers.
RESERVE – Jamie McMurray
Jamie McMurray is proving a popular inclusion for this weekend’s race, but his poor recent record at the circuit presents no case for a starter berth. Go with the majority, if only for personal insurance against an improbable points swing.
GROUP C
STARTER – Chase Elliott / RESERVE – Ryan Blaney
Despite enduring a nightmare turn of fortunes, there can be no doubting that Elliott understands what the legendary #24 car represents. Success and racing pedigree courses through its mechanical soul, and it is only a matter of time before Elliott delivers on the promise shown in last weekend’s Xfinity event.
Again, Ryan Blaney is the Group C reserve, with Ty Dillon as an alternative due to his relative popularity amongst the remaining drivers in this group.
For the latest standings and statistics, visit Motorsport24.com
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