And so the Kraken awakes. Kyle Busch, the incumbent king of the Sprint Cup, has recovered with admirable gusto after a disastrous finish of 25th in Fontana, winning the last two races at a canter.
Emerging victorious in Martinsville is a feat in itself, and Busch is undoubtedly becoming a driver that has perfected the balance between speed and control under the new rules package.
Bristol Motor Speedway – also lovingly known as “Thunder Valley” – is well noted for its intimidating atmosphere. The state of Tennessee is, after all, in the very thumping heart of NASCAR land, and there is every reason for the front runners to feel the pressure as the standings begin to take shape.
There can be no underestimating the psychological boost that a win in Bristol can provide, but success breeds success, and there are no major surprises in this week’s shortlist.
GROUP A
The temptation to burn through the allocation of Kyle Busch starts has been resisted well – until now. The Kyle Busch of 2016 is, if anything, an improvement on the driver that stormed to last year’s championship. However, speed will be an obvious asset on the fastest half-mile in the entire roster of tracks, with this trait of Bristol playing directly into Busch’s hands.
No longer is the Nevadan totally reliant on the unrivalled speed of Joe Gibbs Racing. Busch is now beginning to demonstrate the sort of all-round form that saw Jimmie Johnson cruise to five consecutive titles between 2006 and 2010, and this is the weekend which sees Busch finally get the proverbial nod.
Though Busch is likely to feature as the Group A starter for much of the immediate future, Jimmie Johnson himself would be ignored at any fantasy manager’s peril ahead of the Food City 500.
Long since assured of a playoff berth, Johnson has the required tenacity to thrive, particularly with intermediate tracks being his well-known specialty. Though Bristol is not an intermediate track, memories of a second place finish for Johnson, in last year’s corresponding event, will provide a huge psychological fillip for Hendrick Motorsports’ top boy ahead of Sunday’s showdown.
GROUP B
Vox populi, vox dei. The popularity of Carl Edwards and Austin Dillon shows no signs of abating, even though starter allocations are now running thin for both drivers – particularly Edwards, who boasts a fast car that has generally performed well this year.
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The Group B dilemma is now starker than ever, and a prime example of a Catch-22 situation. Leaving Carl Edwards out is too much of a risk, but there is no chance to gain ground if rival managers also have the luxury of selecting him. For that reason, the reserve list is the key battleground ahead of this weekend’s race.
This weekend, the predicted game changer in Group B is AJ Allmendinger, who thrived on a similarly short track in Martinsville with a second place finish. The confidence boost gained by that achievement should be enough to dull the memory of a 22nd place finish in the Duck Commander 500, ultimately spurring the #47 driver to a stronger performance in Bristol.
For the more cautious managers with no significant ground to gain, Martin Truex Jr is a go-to reserve on statistics alone after a revelatory season with Furniture Row in 2015. He achieved another top-ten finish last week, but it is worth noting that his recent history in Bristol is decidedly checkered.
GROUP C
Chase Elliott finally became a man last weekend, finishing in the top five for the very first time in the legendary #24 car. Inevitably, this has been the cue for a landslide of managers selecting him as the Group C starter.
He can be expected to remain there if there is a similarly strong showing in Bristol.
For the latest standings and statistics, visit Motorsport24.com
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