Time to finally kick off the 2016 NFL season! After wrapping up a my “Swing for the Fences” MLB DFS series last week, I am glad to be transitioning to write a weekly NFL DFS article highlighting a couple of my favorite Value Plays at each position based on DraftKings salaries. Week 1 of the NFL season always offers some strong value options with pricing coming out early in the preseason. So let’s get to the DraftKings value plays for Week 1.
NFL DFS DraftKings Value Plays for Week 1
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston (TB) @ ATL $6,600
Winston will begin his second season under center for the Buccaneers as they travel to Atlanta to face the division-rival Falcons. As a small underdog in one of the bigger Vegas total of the week (47.5), Winston should be looking to go to the air plenty to keep up with the Falcons’ offense. Winston averaged 202 passing yards with one touchdown pass in their two meetings last season but also rush for a score in each game. Priced as the 20th most expensive QB, Winston offers a solid floor with some upside.
Dak Prescott (DAL) vs NYG $5,000
Prescott was the buzz of the preseason and moves into the starting lineup with the injury to Tony Romo. While I think that Prescott is being way too overhyped and will likely not live up to expectations, he doesn’t need to post huge numbers to be worth his minimum priced salary. Prescott will be at home and has a good matchup against a Giants’ defense that allowed almost 5,000 passing yards and 31 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks last season.
Running Backs
DeMarco Murray (TEN) vs MIN $5,300
I expect most people to be rostering the other Murray (Latavius Murray) this week, but I give a slight edge to DeMarco. The Titans will play at home against the Vikings who will be without Teddy Bridgewater which should give the Titans a chance to play with a lead and control the game. The Titans will be looking to run the ball a lot this season with Murray and rookie Derrick Henry but Murray should get the bulk of the carries early in the year. Murray is also a capable receiver averaging over three catches a game in his career. He is a little bit cheaper than Latavius and will definitely be lower owned making him a great pivot.
Duke Johnson (CLE) @ PHI $5,100
On a full point per reception site like DraftKings, it is always good to roster pass-catching backs and Johnson is one of the better pass receiving backs in the league. He had 61 receptions in his rookie season last year and should get some additional carries this season in addition to his receptions. The Browns face an Eagles’ defense that gave up 798 receiving yards (9th most) and six receiving touchdowns (4th most) to opposing running backs last season.
Wide Receivers
Donte Moncrief (IND) vs DET $6,000
In seven games with Andrew Luck starting last season, Moncrief had 54 targets for 32 receptions, 351 yards, and five touchdowns. Now in his third season and with a healthy Luck back under center, Moncrief could be primed for a breakout season. He will begin with a potentially high scoring affair with one of the highest Vegas totals of the week at home against the Lions.
Marvin Jones (DET) @ IND $4,600 (DailyFantasyNerd Value Play of the Day)
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Jones will look to help fill the void left by the retirement of Calvin Johnson in Detroit. Jones showed flashes in Cincinnati with 10 touchdowns in 2013 and 816 receiving yards last season and will look to put it together for his new team as one of their top targets. Jones should be in line for at least 8-10 targets against a Colts’ defense that ranked 8th worst in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR last season.
Tight Ends
Dwayne Allen (IND) vs DET $3,200
With the offseason departure of Coby Fleener, Allen takes over as the primary receiving tight end in the potent Colts offense. He could come out of the gates hot with a good matchup against the Lions who allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season in a game with a high Vegas total.
Jared Cook (GB) @ JAX $2,900
Cook will look to make a good first impression for his new team, the Packers, as he faces a Jaguars’ defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. Cook has the ability to stretch the middle of the field for a big play or be a big target in the red zone and only needs one score or big play to be worth his $2,900 salary.
Defense
Houston Texans vs CHI $3,200
The Texans are just the 9th highest priced defense this week on DraftKings but offer significant upside playing at home as a six-point favorite against the Bears. The Bears have some question marks on what their offensive identity will be this season with the loss of Matt Forte and could have a hard time figuring it out against the Texans with J.J. Watt expected to play.
New York Giants @ DAL $2,700
As I stated in my Dak Prescott write-up, I am not on board with him have a great week which leads to my Giants’ defense selection. I could see the Giants getting up early in this game and putting the pressure on Prescott to throw the ball more often than the Cowboys want resulting in potential sacks and turnovers for the Giants’ defense.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @Rotopilot to get all my fantasy sports content.
[wysija_form id=”10″]ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
