Welcome to week 14 of the 2018-19 NFL season! It has been a fun ride this year, with plenty of amazing stories. For DFS purposes, FanDuel and DraftKings have shelled out more money than ever. Hopefully, you have been able to take advantage…
This Sunday is an interesting one. The most optimal lineups, for the most part, have included high priced running backs, mixed with low-priced wide receivers. Well, this week we have three running backs who are near minimum price and expected to see very high ownership. There will be plenty of funds available to pay up for those stud receivers but is that the right path to winning a GPP?
Let’s break this slate down, position by position, and find some of the best NFL DFS players for week 14.
Drew Brees (NO) @ TB $8,500
When it comes to exposure, the quarterback position is always fairly spread out. Drew Brees shouldn’t see more than 15% ownership in what could be the highest scoring game on the slate. Brees is having an MVP type season, coming off a disappointing performance against the Cowboys. I fully expect Brees to bounce back and torch this Buccaneers secondary as he did week one. As a reminder, he posted a 439-3 line.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs. BAL $7,000
The reason Mahomes is a GPP option is his price. The most common DFS strategy is to pay down at quarterback. Mahomes is a pretty penny but worth every dollar. In addition, the matchup appears to be very tough. The Ravens are nasty. They rank fifth in overall DVOA and fifth against the pass. But this is Patrick Mahomes. He has burned good defenses all year and is averaging 30 DraftKings points per game. Arrowhead is one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL to play in. As one of the loudest buildings, teams tend to struggle and Mahomes should be successful, once again.
Others to consider: Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan.
Nick Chubb (CLE) vs. CAR $7,700
The Browns really struggled against the Houston defense last week, abandoning the run game early. Chubb only had nine rushing attempts last week against a stout front. Too many mistakes early on hurt Chubb’s fantasy value. This Sunday, however, the Browns host a banged up Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Although their defense has been better against the run, Chubb is a very special talent. Their linebackers are smaller than average and do, historically, struggle with power running backs. Although it is a risky option, Chubb has massive upside and is starting to get much more involved in the passing game.
Saquon Barkley (NYG) @ WAS $8,900
If you have read my articles before, you know how much I love Saquon Barkley. I have been high on him all year long and benefited greatly. On a full, 13-game slate, there are so many running back options. The top-tier is loaded and there is also a lot of value at the position. Barkley should not exceed 20% ownership and is once again in line for a massive workload. The Redskins are using Mark Sanchez as their quarterback. Just let that sit in for a moment. The game script should be in favor of the Giants where they will be able to control the clock with the run game. Barkley should easily handle the rock 25+ times, again. This is another scenario where Barkley, who averages 26.6 DraftKings points per game, will go overlooked and under-owned.
Others to consider: Christian McCaffery, Ezekiel Elliot, Phillip Lindsay, Jeff Wilson, Jaylen Samuels.
Davante Adams (GB) vs. ATL $8,700
Both FanDuel and DraftKings have taken notice of Adam’s production recently and thus bumped his price up. Deservingly so, Davante Adams has been a monster. With Mike McCarthy gone, everyone is excited to see what Aaron Rodger will do without the reigns. This matchup screams a shootout, with a 51.5 projected game total. Adams is Aaron Rodgers top target who owns 39% of the Packers air yards, to go along with 28.3% target share. In a potential shootout, Admas is my personal favorite wide receiver to score the most fantasy points.
Amari Cooper (DAL) @ PHI $6,600
These two divisional teams will face each other again, after playing in Dallas on week 10. One thing we know is that Ertz and Zeke will be great. They always are and demand production. What we also know is that Amari Cooper will get his targets. We have seen incredible upside from Cooper his entire NFL career. The question is his consistency. Which is why he is priced as a mid-tier wide-out and remains strictly a GPP only option. If you have the stones to play Amari Cooper, he is the type of player who can win you any tournament. At his price, his floor is also high enough where he shouldn’t sink lineups.
Others to consider: Antonio Brown/JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, Bruce Ellington, Alshon Jeffery.
Jared Cook (OAK) vs. PIT $6,300
There is hardly anything going right in Oakland these days. However, tight end, Jared Cook is doing what he can to give Raiders fans something to cheer for each Sunday. After the departer of Amari Cooper, Martavius Bryant being a disappointment, Brandon LaFell’s injury, and a mediocre Seth Roberts, Cook is the most talented pass-catcher on the field. Although he is expensive on FanDuel, he should go under-owned due to the boom or bust production, each week.
Rob Gronkowski (NE) @ MIA $4,800
It seems absurd to look at this price tag next to Rob Gronkowski. However, it is warranted given his recent form. Just three catches in each of his last two games since returning from injury, to go along with 82 yards. That being said, Gronk is still a very dangerous weapon for the Patriots. He is always a red zone threat and can haul in a deep pass as good as any tight end. DraftKings is really baiting us to play Gronk. Who will actually pull the trigger though? Kelce and Ertz are both amazing plays in the top tier and there are plenty of options as punt plays. Gronk will be the guy left off most rosters.
Others to consider: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham, Matt LaCosse.
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