Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (June 1)

Another three home run night from my selections on Tuesday along with a big night from Matt Carpenter even though he didn’t hit one out of the park. It is hard to not just recommend a bunch of players in Coors Field every night there is a game there. Especially when the Reds horrible pitching staff is in town. So tonight we have another barrage of Rockies right-handed batters against the Reds’ lefty John Lamb.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Wilson Ramos (WAS) – Ramos has five extra-base hits against lefties this season in just 30 at-bats and will face Phillies lefty Adam Morgan tonight who has allowed a .227 ISO to righties so far in his career.

1B – Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) – Thought about going with David Ortiz again tonight but decided on Encarnacion who is 7-for-16 with two doubles and a homer against Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is prone to the long ball, especially against righties.

2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) – Altuve is showing some extra pop this season with a career-high slugging percentage and nine homers. Tonight, Altuve faces lefty Robbie Ray who has given up 1.72 HR/9 to righties this season.

SS – Trevor Story (COL) – Going back to Story again tonight in a better matchup than last night with lefty John Lamb on the hill for the Reds at Coors Field. Story has a .309 ISO against lefties in his short career while Lamb has given up two homers in each of his last two starts.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) – Almost went with Arenado last night but didn’t want too many Rockies on my list. He ended up hitting two homers last night and I wouldn’t be shocked if he does it again tonight facing a lefty and terrible bullpen.

OF – Ryan Raburn (COL) – Raburn completes my trio of Rockies righties to pick on Lamb. Raburn has always mashed lefties with a career .227 ISO.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) – Cruz is always a good option when facing a lefty with a career .250 ISO. Tonight he will face Padres’ lefty Christian Friedrich who hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season in 16.1 innings but that should change tonight.

OF – Jayson Werth (WAS) – Another Nationals’ righty going against lefty Adam Morgan. Werth has homered in two of his last three games and has a .244 career ISO against lefties.

Longshot – Ryan Howard (PHI) There is only one thing Howard can still do, hit home runs. There is only one thing that opposing pitcher Max Scherzer has struggled with this season, allow home runs. Which gives Howard has a shot for a longshot tonight.

Tuesday’s Results

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Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Jonathan Lucroy 1 28.2
1B David Ortiz 0 3.0
2B Starlin Castro 0 0.0
SS Matt Carpenter 0 46.8
3B Trevor Story 0 3.0
OF Carlos Gonzalez 1 31.2
OF Khris Davis 0 12.0
OF Lorenzo Cain 1 38.4
Longshot Kirk Nieuwenhuis DNP

 

Season Results

 

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 4 1 25.0% 7.80
1B 2 0 0.0% 3.00
2B 4 0 0.0% 7.55
SS 3 1 33.3% 14.57
3B 4 1 25.0% 18.75
OF 10 3 30.0% 19.15
Longshot 2 1 50.0% 12.45
Total 29 7 24.1% 13.88

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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