Swing for the Fences: DFS Home Run Predictions (June 7)

Another three home run day on Sunday but I am still looking for the first “double dong” game from one of my recommendations as well as going 0-for-4 at a power position like first base needs to get better soon. Maybe we can knock both off the list with an Anthony Rizzo two-homer night.

Here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

C – Welington Castillo (ARI) – Castillo has a career .211 ISO against lefties and will face lefty Matt Moore who has given up 1.89 HR/9 to righties. Game will also be played in hitter-friendly Arizona with temperatures over 100 degrees.

1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) – Rizzo has three multi-hit games in his last five games with two homers during that span. Rizzo has hit 10 of his 13 homers off righties this season and faces Phillies right-hander Jared Eickhoff who has allowed 1.27 HR/9 to lefties this season.

2B – Robinson Cano (SEA) – Cano has re-established his power stroke this season with 16 homers and he will look to get #17 Tuesday against Indians righty Cody Anderson who has given up a whopping 2.75 HR/9 to righties so far this season.

SS – Almedys Diaz (STL) –Diaz has been a surprising power source this season and at a weak position he has one of the better chances to go deep tonight against Reds lefty John Lamb and his 1.47 HR/9 allowed this season.

3B – Danny Valencia (OAK) – Valencia is a streak hitter and appears to be in the middle of a hot streak over the last week batting .536 with three homers in his last eight games. Tonight he gets a favorable park adjustment playing in Milwaukee and facing rookie Zach Davies who has allowed multiple homers in two of his last three starts.

OF – Mike Trout (LAA) – Trout could be on this list most nights but tonight playing in Yankee Stadium with Michael Pineda on the mound is an especially good spot. Pineda has struggled with allowing the long ball especially at home where he has allowed 2.93 HR/9 this season.

OF – Yasmany Tomas (ARI) – Similar story as Castillo. Tomas has a career .233 ISO against lefties and faces home run prone lefty Matt Moore in the 100-degree heat of Arizona. The ball should be flying out of the park in the desert tonight.

OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – Stanton has struggled to get in the lineup recently due some soreness but received the day off yesterday and should have a good shot to hit a homer today facing the Twins rookie lefty Pat Dean who has allowed a long ball in each of his three starts this season.

Longshot – Jedd Gyorko (STL) I like all of the Cardinals righty bats against Lamb and the Reds bullpen tonight. So, if Gyorko is in the lineup he makes for a great cheap home run flier with four homers in just 63 at-bats against lefties this season.

 

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Sunday’s Results

Date Pos Name HR FD Pts
5-Jun C Evan Gattis 1 21.7
5-Jun 1B Dae-Ho Lee 0 0.0
5-Jun 2B Brian Dozier 0 0.0
5-Jun SS Carlos Correa 0 12.5
5-Jun 3B Maikel Franco 1 24.9
5-Jun OF Bryce Harper 0 15.4
5-Jun OF Nelson Cruz 1 22.2
5-Jun OF Mark Trumbo 0 6.2
5-Jun Longshot Clint Robinson 0 12.7

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 6 3 50.0% 14.68
1B 4 0 0.0% 5.55
2B 6 0 0.0% 8.07
SS 5 1 20.0% 11.84
3B 6 2 33.3% 17.15
OF 16 4 25.0% 15.64
Longshot 3 1 33.3% 12.53
Total 46 11 23.9% 13.23

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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